← UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane
Nathaniel Wood vs Jose Delgado
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10-25
50.7%
Model
40.5%
Market
2.38
Odds
+10.2
Edge (pp)
established · 12 UFC fightsestablished · 12 fights
Style Matchup
provisional · 2 UFC fightsprovisional · 2 fights
STRIKING
P95
Striking Initiative
P100
P89
Volume
P98
P88
Striking Efficiency
P96
P81
Range Sniper
P97
P88
Kickboxing
P47
P20
Clinch Striking
P50
P64
Defensive Striking
P65
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P57
Wrestling
P26
P51
Pressure Wrestling
P32
P49
Top Control
P3
P59
Submission
P38
P71
Anti-Wrestling
P13
P82
Grappling Defense
P19
P57
Scrambler
P35
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P49
Power
P100
P26
Finisher
P79
P73
Damage Resistance
P42
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P71
Fast Starter
P85
P75
Pace
P81
P18
Late Fighter
—
GLOBAL
P93
Versatility
P40
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
WoodDelgado
5.66Landed / min8.82
3.89Absorbed / min2.65
52%Accuracy59%
56%Defense68%
0.38KD / 158.82
0.19KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
WoodDelgado
1.41TD / 150.00
2.91TD att / 154.41
48%TD accuracy0%
72%TD defense50%
2:34Control / 150:44
0.56Sub att / 150.00
Targets
WoodDelgado
Head55%|70%
Body11%|27%
Leg34%|3%
Position
WoodDelgado
Distance86%|60%
Clinch6%|7%
Ground9%|33%
Ranking evolution Wood Delgado
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Nathaniel Wood
Jose Delgado brings high-volume, pressuring striking backed by real finishing ability, with 10-1 across all organizations and a 7-fight win streak. His striking output and ground control have both been trending upward lately, and he owns a 13 cm reach advantage that lets him work from range.
Jose Delgado
Nathaniel Wood is the deeper-tested fighter at 21-6 overall and 9-3 in the UFC, winning 4 of his last 5. His most relevant tool here is his ability to change levels and drag the fight to the mat, where he can take exchanges away from a rangy striker.
Matchup Read
Standing favors Delgado's pressure, volume and reach; the mat is where Wood can flip the fight. If Wood times entries and chains takedowns, he neutralizes Delgado's length and finishing threat at distance. Delgado's job is to keep it upright and use his frame behind volume. With Delgado's ground control trending up, Wood may not find easy control even after landing takedowns, making the scramble battle central.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Delgado can plant Wood on the end of his jab and use the 13 cm reach to keep exchanges at range.
- Grappling: how cleanly Wood changes levels and finishes entries versus Delgado getting back up quickly.
- Late rounds: whether Delgado's pressure and output hold up or Wood's grinding tilts the pace.
Key Uncertainty
With only two UFC fights on record, Delgado's level against this quality of opposition is not yet fully established, which limits how confidently his striking and grappling can be read here.