← UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane
Hamdy Abdelwahab vs Chris Barnett
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10-25
83.4%
Model
74.8%
Market
1.29
Odds
+8.6
Edge (pp)
provisional · 2 UFC fightsprovisional · 2 fights
Style Matchup
limited sample · 5 UFC fightslimited · 5 fights
STRIKING
P10
Striking Initiative
P46
P29
Volume
P60
P76
Striking Efficiency
P74
P56
Range Sniper
P90
P95
Kickboxing
P69
P13
Clinch Striking
P27
P22
Defensive Striking
P2
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P35
Wrestling
P6
P2
Pressure Wrestling
P8
P36
Top Control
P4
P1
Submission
P0
P57
Anti-Wrestling
P4
P73
Grappling Defense
P2
P32
Scrambler
P27
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P34
Power
P78
P45
Finisher
P66
P62
Damage Resistance
P30
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P6
Fast Starter
P0
P1
Pace
P3
P62
Late Fighter
P27
GLOBAL
P36
Versatility
P1
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
AbdelwahabBarnett
3.30Landed / min4.21
5.17Absorbed / min6.53
47%Accuracy47%
49%Defense39%
0.00KD / 150.39
0.00KD abs / 150.79
Grappling / Wrestling
AbdelwahabBarnett
0.50TD / 150.00
1.00TD att / 150.79
50%TD accuracy0%
100%TD defense33%
0:30Control / 150:39
0.00Sub att / 150.00
Targets
AbdelwahabBarnett
Head60%|60%
Body13%|11%
Leg27%|29%
Position
AbdelwahabBarnett
Distance96%|70%
Clinch0%|7%
Ground4%|23%
Ranking evolution Abdelwahab Barnett
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Hamdy Abdelwahab
Abdelwahab manages range well and defends the stand-up sharply, with defense that's been trending upward lately. His takedown defense keeps things where he wants them, and a durable chin plus the ability to hold pace deep into the fight round out his profile. UFC record sits at 1-1, 7-1 overall.
Chris Barnett
Barnett brings the deeper experience at 23-9 across all organizations, though he's gone 2 of his last 5 in the UFC. He carries an 8 cm reach advantage and has been out for 12 months, coming off a loss to the No. 37-ranked opponent.
Matchup Read
Early, Barnett's reach and orthodox-southpaw angles give him a window to work at range before Abdelwahab's defensive stand-up settles in. As the fight stretches, the picture tilts toward Abdelwahab: his cardio and chin become more relevant the longer it goes. If Barnett tries to change levels, Abdelwahab's takedown defense keeps this standing, which suits his pace and durability over the distance.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Barnett uses his 8 cm reach to score first before Abdelwahab closes distance and reads the range.
- Grappling: if Barnett looks to take it down, watch whether Abdelwahab stuffs it and forces a standing fight.
- Late rounds: whether Abdelwahab's pace and chin start to tell as the pace holds and Barnett's output dips.
Key Uncertainty
Abdelwahab has only two UFC fights on record, so how his tools hold up against this level of opposition over a full fight is harder to read with confidence.