← UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane
Mitch Raposo vs Azat Maksum
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10-25
66.9%
Model
27.8%
Market
3.46
Odds
+39.2
Edge (pp)
provisional · 2 UFC fightsprovisional · 2 fights
Style Matchup
provisional · 3 UFC fightsprovisional · 3 fights
STRIKING
P0
Striking Initiative
P16
P1
Volume
P72
P17
Striking Efficiency
P1
P12
Range Sniper
P30
P59
Kickboxing
P12
P34
Clinch Striking
P52
P50
Defensive Striking
P40
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P81
Wrestling
P68
P82
Pressure Wrestling
P59
P79
Top Control
P24
P37
Submission
P43
P58
Anti-Wrestling
P87
P73
Grappling Defense
P71
P34
Scrambler
P49
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P12
Power
P58
P53
Finisher
P28
P53
Damage Resistance
P71
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P41
Fast Starter
P54
P11
Pace
P67
P62
Late Fighter
P28
GLOBAL
P42
Versatility
P9
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
RaposoMaksum
1.37Landed / min3.24
3.20Absorbed / min5.00
40%Accuracy29%
55%Defense52%
0.00KD / 150.33
0.00KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
RaposoMaksum
3.50TD / 152.33
10.50TD att / 158.33
33%TD accuracy28%
100%TD defense86%
2:14Control / 151:16
0.00Sub att / 150.33
Targets
RaposoMaksum
Head68%|67%
Body29%|26%
Leg2%|7%
Position
RaposoMaksum
Distance98%|87%
Clinch2%|13%
Ground0%|0%
Ranking evolution Raposo Maksum
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Mitch Raposo
Mitch Raposo carries a 10-4 mark across all organizations but sits 0-2 in the UFC against modest regional opposition. His strengths in this matchup lean defensive: a slight edge in managing range and stand-up defense, some ability to stuff takedowns and keep things upright, and a chin that has held up under fire.
Azat Maksum
Azat Maksum brings a 15-2 overall record, with his lone recent setback coming against the No. 12-ranked opponent. He owns a clear reach and frame advantage of 15 cm, a strong ability to scramble off his back and return to his feet, and a slight edge in striking volume and forward pressure that has been trending upward.
Matchup Read
Maksum brings the deeper résumé and the longer frame, but Raposo owns the sharper matchup-specific defense. The southpaw's reach and higher output push Raposo to fight at range, exactly where his own distance management and stand-up defense matter most. If Maksum looks to grapple, Raposo's takedown defense meets an opponent who is hard to hold down anyway, so scrambles favor the return to the feet. The striking exchanges likely decide this.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Raposo can neutralize the 15 cm reach and get inside Maksum's jab, or gets kept at the end of punches.
- Grappling: if the fight hits the mat, watch how fast Maksum scrambles back upright versus how long Raposo can control.
- Late rounds: whether Maksum's forward pressure and volume start compounding as the fight wears on.
Key Uncertainty
With only two UFC fights on Raposo's record, both against modest regional opposition, there's limited high-level tape to gauge how his defensive tools translate against a longer, higher-volume opponent.