← UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg
Carlos Ulberg vs Jiri Prochazka
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04-11
70.5%
Model
43.4%
Market
2.22
Odds
+27.2
Edge (pp)
established · 10 UFC fightsestablished · 10 fights
Style Matchup
STRIKING
P98
Striking Initiative
P76
P96
Volume
P71
P98
Striking Efficiency
P95
P94
Range Sniper
P95
P98
Kickboxing
P67
P15
Clinch Striking
P54
P34
Defensive Striking
P6
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P34
Wrestling
P33
P11
Pressure Wrestling
P14
P52
Top Control
P40
P36
Submission
P43
P57
Anti-Wrestling
P98
P95
Grappling Defense
P74
P4
Scrambler
P65
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P92
Power
P95
P51
Finisher
P98
P62
Damage Resistance
P33
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P93
Fast Starter
P14
P43
Pace
P30
P64
Late Fighter
P83
GLOBAL
P89
Versatility
P56
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
UlbergProchazka
6.58Landed / min5.69
4.05Absorbed / min5.60
56%Accuracy55%
51%Defense46%
1.13KD / 150.85
0.19KD abs / 150.51
Grappling / Wrestling
UlbergProchazka
0.56TD / 150.51
0.94TD att / 150.85
60%TD accuracy60%
86%TD defense68%
0:40Control / 151:54
0.19Sub att / 150.17
Targets
UlbergProchazka
Head60%|78%
Body17%|16%
Leg23%|7%
Position
UlbergProchazka
Distance90%|77%
Clinch4%|8%
Ground6%|15%
Ranking evolution Ulberg Prochazka
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Carlos Ulberg
Carlos Ulberg rides a 9-fight win streak and a 5/5 run across his UFC bouts, most recently beating the No. 8-ranked opponent. He shows sharp distance management and solid stand-up defense, and he's hard to drag down, keeping exchanges where he wants them standing.
Jiri Prochazka
Jiri Prochazka carries a 32-5 overall record and real finishing power, able to end fights before the scorecards. His striking volume has been trending upward, his gas tank holds up deep into fights, and he enjoys an 8 cm reach advantage. His recent form has stayed stable.
Matchup Read
Ulberg brings the cleaner recent résumé against ranked opposition, but Prochazka owns the sharper closing tools here. The key tension is at range: Ulberg's distance control and defensive stand-up meet Prochazka's longer reach, rising output, and finishing threat. If Ulberg keeps it standing and manages space, he can frustrate the volume. If Prochazka closes distance and loads up, his power and deeper tank grow more dangerous as the fight wears on.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Ulberg's distance control neutralizes Prochazka's reach or Prochazka walks him into range.
- Finishing windows: how Ulberg's defense holds up against Prochazka's power in the pocket.
- Late rounds: whether Prochazka's volume and gas tank take over if the fight extends.