← UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes
Carlos Ulberg vs Dominick Reyes
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09-27
67.6%
Model
62.6%
Market
1.54
Odds
+5.0
Edge (pp)
established · 9 UFC fightsestablished · 9 fights
Style Matchup
established · 13 UFC fightsestablished · 13 fights
STRIKING
P98
Striking Initiative
P96
P97
Volume
P89
P98
Striking Efficiency
P95
P93
Range Sniper
P89
P98
Kickboxing
P88
P15
Clinch Striking
P67
P34
Defensive Striking
P28
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P36
Wrestling
P8
P12
Pressure Wrestling
P16
P53
Top Control
P32
P37
Submission
P44
P56
Anti-Wrestling
P40
P94
Grappling Defense
P93
P5
Scrambler
P8
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P88
Power
P93
P42
Finisher
P86
P59
Damage Resistance
P21
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P92
Fast Starter
P94
P46
Pace
P50
P71
Late Fighter
P30
GLOBAL
P88
Versatility
P60
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
UlbergReyes
6.82Landed / min5.58
4.23Absorbed / min3.54
56%Accuracy54%
51%Defense50%
0.99KD / 151.07
0.20KD abs / 150.46
Grappling / Wrestling
UlbergReyes
0.60TD / 150.30
0.99TD att / 151.07
60%TD accuracy29%
86%TD defense83%
0:41Control / 151:15
0.20Sub att / 150.30
Targets
UlbergReyes
Head60%|58%
Body17%|24%
Leg23%|17%
Position
UlbergReyes
Distance90%|73%
Clinch4%|11%
Ground6%|16%
Ranking evolution Ulberg Reyes
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Carlos Ulberg
Carlos Ulberg rides an eight-fight win streak with a 5-for-5 run over his last five UFC starts, and his best results have come against quality opposition. In this matchup his ability to change levels and drag the fight to the mat stands out as a route many light heavyweight strikers can't offer.
Dominick Reyes
Dominick Reyes brings a 3-fight streak and deep experience at 9-4 in the UFC. His striking output and the sting behind it have climbed recently, and he carries genuine finishing momentum with real knockout power on the recent stretch.
Matchup Read
Standing, Reyes owns the more dangerous recent form: rising volume, growing dominance in exchanges, and knockout power that makes every clean landing costly for Ulberg. That's exactly why Ulberg's willingness to get the fight down matters, as changing levels takes him out of Reyes's most productive range. The orthodox-southpaw look reshapes the angles on the lead hand and on Ulberg's level entries, complicating the timing for both men.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Reyes's volume and power force Ulberg to commit to level changes sooner than he'd like.
- Grappling: whether Ulberg can consistently complete entries and keep Reyes off his feet rather than trading in the pocket.
- Stance battle: how the crossed leads open or close Ulberg's takedown timing against a southpaw.