← UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg
Dominick Reyes vs Johnny Walker
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04-11
54.0%
Model
53.2%
Market
1.81
Odds
+0.8
Edge (pp)
established · 14 UFC fightsestablished · 14 fights
Style Matchup
established · 14 UFC fightsestablished · 14 fights
STRIKING
P96
Striking Initiative
P59
P88
Volume
P61
P95
Striking Efficiency
P72
P88
Range Sniper
P82
P87
Kickboxing
P51
P66
Clinch Striking
P39
P24
Defensive Striking
P24
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P8
Wrestling
P23
P16
Pressure Wrestling
P5
P32
Top Control
P17
P44
Submission
P48
P41
Anti-Wrestling
P87
P94
Grappling Defense
P17
P7
Scrambler
P71
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P91
Power
P93
P85
Finisher
P97
P11
Damage Resistance
P1
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P96
Fast Starter
P86
P45
Pace
P17
P36
Late Fighter
P36
GLOBAL
P57
Versatility
P24
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
ReyesWalker
5.39Landed / min3.82
3.49Absorbed / min2.98
54%Accuracy53%
50%Defense49%
1.02KD / 150.83
0.58KD abs / 151.16
Grappling / Wrestling
ReyesWalker
0.29TD / 150.33
1.02TD att / 150.67
29%TD accuracy50%
83%TD defense53%
1:12Control / 151:21
0.29Sub att / 150.50
Targets
ReyesWalker
Head58%|51%
Body24%|10%
Leg18%|39%
Position
ReyesWalker
Distance73%|65%
Clinch11%|8%
Ground16%|27%
Ranking evolution Reyes Walker
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Dominick Reyes
Reyes brings slight edges in striking volume and forward pressure, plus the ability to change levels and get the fight down while defending takedowns on the way back up. His ground control and defensive work have both been trending upward lately. UFC record of 9-5, with his last loss coming against the No. 4-ranked opponent.
Johnny Walker
Walker owns a clear physical advantage, with 13 cm of reach and 5 cm of height over Reyes, giving him length to work behind at range. His cardio holds up slightly better deep into the fight. He's on a one-fight win streak, his last victory over the No. 15-ranked opponent, with a 22-9 mark across all organizations.
Matchup Read
Phase by phase, this splits cleanly: at range Walker's reach and frame let him keep Reyes outside, while Reyes's volume and pressure reward him for closing the distance and taking it to the mat. The orthodox-southpaw setup reshapes the lead-hand exchanges. If Reyes can get past the length and ground Walker, his improving top control matters; if Walker keeps it standing and long, his edge grows the deeper things run.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Reyes can pressure inside Walker's 13 cm reach or gets kept pinned at the end of punches.
- Grappling: whether Reyes's level changes find the mat and he can establish top position against Walker's frame.
- Late rounds: whether the pace holds for Reyes or Walker's cardio becomes the deciding factor down the stretch.