← UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg
Cub Swanson vs Nate Landwehr
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04-11
60.9%
Model
42.4%
Market
2.27
Odds
+18.5
Edge (pp)
established · 25 UFC fightsestablished · 25 fights
Style Matchup
STRIKING
P83
Striking Initiative
P78
P82
Volume
P83
P95
Striking Efficiency
P66
P95
Range Sniper
P75
P92
Kickboxing
P46
P63
Clinch Striking
P86
P81
Defensive Striking
P35
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P35
Wrestling
P30
P31
Pressure Wrestling
P44
P18
Top Control
P40
P40
Submission
P47
P43
Anti-Wrestling
P87
P57
Grappling Defense
P81
P37
Scrambler
P50
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P48
Power
P45
P24
Finisher
P36
P82
Damage Resistance
P13
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P63
Fast Starter
P24
P22
Pace
P45
P95
Late Fighter
P48
GLOBAL
P88
Versatility
P46
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
SwansonLandwehr
5.25Landed / min5.63
4.45Absorbed / min5.83
52%Accuracy46%
59%Defense52%
0.49KD / 150.15
0.20KD abs / 150.76
Grappling / Wrestling
SwansonLandwehr
0.69TD / 150.76
1.32TD att / 151.82
52%TD accuracy42%
73%TD defense72%
1:07Control / 151:48
0.10Sub att / 150.76
Targets
SwansonLandwehr
Head60%|74%
Body20%|14%
Leg20%|12%
Position
SwansonLandwehr
Distance83%|76%
Clinch10%|20%
Ground7%|5%
Ranking evolution Swanson Landwehr
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Cub Swanson
Swanson's recent work has trended toward higher striking output, and his ability to absorb punishment has held up well lately. His last outing produced a win over the No. 41-ranked opponent, and his form has stayed steady without recent decline. He also carries a modest threat to change levels and put the fight on the mat.
Nate Landwehr
Landwehr has tightened up defensively in recent fights, and he's hard to keep down, routinely scrambling off his back and returning to his feet. He owns a slight reach advantage of 5 cm and has mixed a 5-5 UFC run into an 18-7 career record.
Matchup Read
On the feet, Swanson's rising volume and durability give him something to lean on, while the ground is where Landwehr's strengths complicate things. Swanson's level changes are a real option, but Landwehr's knack for escaping bottom position and getting back up blunts the value of any takedown. That pushes the fight toward extended striking exchanges, where Landwehr's slight reach can shape the spacing.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Swanson's takedowns actually translate to hold-down time, or Landwehr scrambles straight back to his feet.
- Striking: how Landwehr uses his reach to manage range against Swanson's higher output.
- Durability: whether Swanson's chin continues to hold up through the heavier exchanges.
Key Uncertainty
Swanson's 15.9-month layoff is long enough to leave real doubt about how his form carries over, making his recent trends harder to project onto this matchup.