← UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan
Matheus Camilo vs Jai Herbert
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan · 2026-10-10
71.1%
Model
63.5%
Market
1.52
Odds
+7.7
Edge (pp)
Style Matchup
established · 9 UFC fightsestablished · 9 fights
STRIKING
P4
Striking Initiative
P49
P6
Volume
P58
P27
Striking Efficiency
P23
P46
Range Sniper
P53
P50
Kickboxing
P50
P26
Clinch Striking
P64
P89
Defensive Striking
P47
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P88
Wrestling
P7
P86
Pressure Wrestling
P33
P71
Top Control
P41
P33
Submission
P6
P48
Anti-Wrestling
P6
P38
Grappling Defense
P30
P32
Scrambler
P18
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P85
Power
P96
P42
Finisher
P81
P55
Damage Resistance
P21
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P51
Fast Starter
P10
P28
Pace
P34
P52
Late Fighter
P87
GLOBAL
P58
Versatility
P7
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
CamiloHerbert
2.22Landed / min3.24
3.05Absorbed / min3.38
43%Accuracy41%
67%Defense53%
0.59KD / 150.98
0.00KD abs / 150.49
Grappling / Wrestling
CamiloHerbert
4.16TD / 150.33
7.73TD att / 151.79
54%TD accuracy18%
—TD defense70%
3:31Control / 152:25
0.59Sub att / 150.00
Targets
CamiloHerbert
Head64%|56%
Body18%|28%
Leg18%|16%
Position
CamiloHerbert
Distance91%|82%
Clinch2%|12%
Ground7%|6%
Ranking evolution Camilo Herbert
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Matheus Camilo
Matheus Camilo rides a two-fight win streak and sits 2-1 in the UFC, 11-3 overall. His value shows up in the grappling: he can change levels to get the fight down and work from top position once there. His damage absorption has held up recently, and his defensive work has been trending upward. Last out he beat lower-ranked opposition.
Jai Herbert
Jai Herbert brings a notable physical package to this one, with a 20 cm reach advantage and the longer frame. His striking leans on volume and pressure, and his output has been climbing of late. He sits 4-5 in the UFC but 3/5 in his last five, 14-6 across all organizations, coming off a win over lower-ranked opposition.
Matchup Read
Standing, the reach gap and Herbert's volume let him fight behind his jab and keep Camilo at the end of punches. The mat is where it tips the other way: Camilo's level changes and top control are his route past that length, taking away the space Herbert needs to work. So the fight hinges on whether Camilo can close the distance and get it down before Herbert's output piles up at range. Three rounds puts a premium on who dictates where it plays out.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Camilo can bridge the 20 cm reach gap or eats volume staying at the end of Herbert's punches.
- Grappling: how cleanly Camilo's level changes land and whether he can hold top position once the fight hits the mat.
- Late rounds: whether Camilo's recent durability holds up if the fight stays standing across three rounds.