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Mandel Nallo vs Jai Herbert
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott · 2026-04-18
Mandel NalloLow Data
vs Jai Herbert
61.6%
Model
61.7%
Market
1.56
Odds
-0.1
Edge (pp)
No UFC data yet
UFC debut · style profile after first fight
Style Matchup
established · 8 UFC fightsestablished · 8 fights
STRIKING
Striking Initiative
P41
Volume
P60
Striking Efficiency
P19
Range Sniper
P48
Kickboxing
P57
Clinch Striking
P71
Defensive Striking
P50
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
Wrestling
P8
Pressure Wrestling
P34
Top Control
P39
Submission
P6
Anti-Wrestling
P6
Grappling Defense
P29
Scrambler
P19
DAMAGE / FINISHING
Power
P91
Finisher
P65
Damage Resistance
P30
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
Fast Starter
P9
Pace
P32
Late Fighter
P90
GLOBAL
Versatility
P6
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
NalloHerbert
—Landed / min3.10
—Absorbed / min3.28
—Accuracy40%
—Defense53%
—KD / 150.67
—KD abs / 150.33
Grappling / Wrestling
NalloHerbert
—TD / 150.33
—TD att / 151.83
—TD accuracy18%
—TD defense70%
—Control / 152:24
—Sub att / 150.00
Targets
NalloHerbert
Head—|53%
Body—|30%
Leg—|17%
Position
NalloHerbert
Distance—|85%
Clinch—|13%
Ground—|2%
Ranking evolution Nallo Herbert
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Mandel Nallo
Mandel Nallo arrives on a five-fight win streak and a 14-3 overall record, carrying real stopping power. His most consistent threat is on the ground, where his submission game gives him a route to finish, and he's shown he can close out fights before the scorecards.
Jai Herbert
Jai Herbert sits at 3-5 in the UFC and 13-6 overall, going 2 for his last 5 in the promotion, and has been out roughly 13 months. He holds a 5 cm reach advantage that lets him work behind a longer frame at range.
Matchup Read
Herbert owns the more tested UFC résumé and the physical length, but Nallo brings the sharper matchup-specific tool: finishing threat, particularly on the mat. The read hinges on where the fight lives. If Herbert can use his five centimeters of reach to keep exchanges long and standing, he dictates. If Nallo closes the gap and drags it down, his submission game becomes the central danger, and the fight can end early on the floor.
What to Watch
- Distance: whether Herbert keeps Nallo at the end of his longer reach or gets forced into close range.
- Grappling: if the fight hits the mat, watch how quickly Nallo hunts the finish rather than settling for position.
- Finishing windows: track whether either man threatens a stoppage or the fight drifts toward the scorecards.
Key Uncertainty
Reading this cleanly is hard: Nallo enters without any UFC history to gauge him against this level, while Herbert steps in after roughly 13 months out of competition.