← UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan
Julius Walker vs Gerald Meerschaert
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan · 2026-10-10
54.0%
Model
71.2%
Market
1.35
Odds
-17.2
Edge (pp)
provisional · 4 UFC fightsprovisional · 4 fights
Style Matchup
established · 26 UFC fightsestablished · 26 fights
STRIKING
P29
Striking Initiative
P16
P11
Volume
P23
P37
Striking Efficiency
P54
P18
Range Sniper
P43
P40
Kickboxing
P62
P81
Clinch Striking
P38
P2
Defensive Striking
P42
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P89
Wrestling
P59
P92
Pressure Wrestling
P79
P98
Top Control
P57
P24
Submission
P100
P60
Anti-Wrestling
P83
P88
Grappling Defense
P18
P33
Scrambler
P95
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P68
Power
P13
P66
Finisher
P98
P16
Damage Resistance
P17
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P71
Fast Starter
P28
P90
Pace
P43
P68
Late Fighter
P68
GLOBAL
P54
Versatility
P70
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
WalkerMeerschaert
3.72Landed / min2.95
4.18Absorbed / min3.44
54%Accuracy45%
43%Defense54%
0.41KD / 150.20
0.81KD abs / 150.48
Grappling / Wrestling
WalkerMeerschaert
4.07TD / 151.70
10.59TD att / 155.77
38%TD accuracy29%
100%TD defense40%
8:10Control / 153:21
0.00Sub att / 151.49
Targets
WalkerMeerschaert
Head48%|73%
Body31%|17%
Leg20%|10%
Position
WalkerMeerschaert
Distance53%|81%
Clinch30%|10%
Ground17%|9%
Ranking evolution Walker Meerschaert
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Julius Walker
Julius Walker's strengths run through his wrestling: he defends takedowns well and keeps exchanges on his feet when he wants, then imposes heavy top control once the fight does hit the mat. His gas tank holds up over three rounds, and his 7-3 overall record comes against modest regional opposition.
Gerald Meerschaert
Gerald Meerschaert brings deep experience across 37-22 and tested work against better competition, including a win over the No. 48-ranked opponent. His chin and damage absorption have held up recently, and his ground control has been trending upward. His UFC ledger sits at 12-14 with 0 wins in his last 5 there.
Matchup Read
Walker's takedown defense and top game meet Meerschaert's rising ground control and submission-heavy résumé, making grappling the pivotal phase. If Walker dictates where it goes and rides top position, his cardio advantage grows across three rounds. If Meerschaert draws him into scrambles, his experience in grappling exchanges becomes relevant. Meerschaert's recent durability means a quick finish is harder to come by, favoring a longer fight.
What to Watch
- Grappling exchanges: whether Walker's top control holds or Meerschaert works his ground game back into the fight.
- Late rounds: whether Walker's gas tank shows as the pace tells over three rounds.
- Damage absorption: how Meerschaert's chin holds up if Walker lands clean and tries to close the show early.