← UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev
Gerald Meerschaert vs Kyle Daukaus
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11-15
53.2%
Model
26.4%
Market
3.65
Odds
+26.8
Edge (pp)
established · 24 UFC fightsestablished · 24 fights
Style Matchup
limited sample · 7 UFC fightslimited · 7 fights
STRIKING
P17
Striking Initiative
P22
P24
Volume
P16
P58
Striking Efficiency
P50
P48
Range Sniper
P41
P63
Kickboxing
P42
P48
Clinch Striking
P63
P42
Defensive Striking
P4
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P63
Wrestling
P66
P80
Pressure Wrestling
P91
P57
Top Control
P80
P99
Submission
P89
P78
Anti-Wrestling
P50
P20
Grappling Defense
P72
P94
Scrambler
P97
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P16
Power
P18
P99
Finisher
P86
P20
Damage Resistance
P10
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P24
Fast Starter
P63
P44
Pace
P76
P59
Late Fighter
P57
GLOBAL
P75
Versatility
P49
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
MeerschaertDaukaus
3.02Landed / min2.98
3.49Absorbed / min3.40
45%Accuracy49%
54%Defense42%
0.22KD / 150.25
0.44KD abs / 151.01
Grappling / Wrestling
MeerschaertDaukaus
1.83TD / 152.01
6.00TD att / 158.30
30%TD accuracy24%
43%TD defense77%
3:17Control / 156:27
1.39Sub att / 150.75
Targets
MeerschaertDaukaus
Head73%|72%
Body17%|14%
Leg10%|13%
Position
MeerschaertDaukaus
Distance80%|72%
Clinch11%|12%
Ground9%|16%
Ranking evolution Meerschaert Daukaus
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Gerald Meerschaert
Gerald Meerschaert is a veteran with a deep 37-20 all-organizations record and a 12-12 UFC ledger, having gone 2 of his last 5 in the promotion. He beat the No. 48-ranked opponent last time out and returns after 3 months.
Kyle Daukaus
Kyle Daukaus rides a five-fight win streak across all organizations and a 16-4 overall mark. His takedown defense stands out, and recently his striking output has been climbing, his knockout power has shown up, his finishing rate has risen, and his chin has held up. He turns around quickly at 2.8 months out.
Matchup Read
Daukaus's ability to stuff takedowns and keep this standing runs directly into any effort by Meerschaert to drag it to the mat, where the veteran's grappling would matter most. If Daukaus keeps it upright, his rising volume and recent power take over, and Meerschaert has recently been on the wrong end of a stoppage. Meerschaert's best route is changing levels early rather than trading at range.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Meerschaert can complete a takedown or gets stuffed and forced to strike.
- Early striking: whether Daukaus's output keeps Meerschaert on the back foot and eats up cage space.
- Damage: how Meerschaert holds up if Daukaus lands clean power in exchanges.