Standing favors Della Maddalena's pressure and output behind the longer reach; the floor is where Makhachev's control and submission threat take over. The fight hinges on where it's contested. If Makhachev closes distance and lands takedowns, his top game and finishing danger become the story. If Della Maddalena keeps it upright and forces exchanges, his volume dictates the pace. Makhachev's slight defensive edge at range complicates the striking read.

The early rounds favor Morales, who owns the finishing power and the length to fight at range, while Brady's value grows the longer the fight stays grounded. The decisive question is whose game dictates the floor of the fight: if Brady closes distance and drags it down, his top control and submission threat come into play. Morales needs to keep it standing behind his reach and forward pressure to make his power the story.

Prates' finishing power and 10 cm of reach meet Edwards' ability to reset back to the feet when grounded. On the outside, the longer frame and higher output give Prates room to work, while Edwards' path runs through closing that distance and using scrambles to neutralize the mat game Prates has been building. If Edwards gets dragged into extended range exchanges, the finishing threat compounds; if he keeps forcing resets, Prates' momentum stalls.

On the feet, Saint Denis's pressure and volume run into Dariush's tighter range control and defensive stand-up, so how well Dariush manages distance decides whether he keeps it clean. The larger question is the ground: Saint Denis's submission threat and his ability to scramble back up make grappling exchanges risky territory, and Dariush's tested experience against elite names is what he leans on to weather that danger over the fight.

Vieira's ability to escape bottom control and get back up meets Nickal's need to keep exchanges where his gas tank and length matter. If Vieira's slight edge in getting the fight down connects, the question becomes whether he can hold position or whether he pops back to the feet into Nickal's range. Over a longer fight, Nickal's cardio grows in value; Vieira's recent durability and volume give him a path in earlier striking exchanges.

Rodrigues's push to get the fight down and work from top meets a Kopylov whose ground control has been climbing, so the mat may not be the one-way street the takedowns suggest. Standing, Rodrigues's reach and the orthodox-southpaw crossing shape the angles, while Kopylov's recent ability to eat shots keeps him live in exchanges. Whether Rodrigues can turn takedown entries into sustained control is the pivot point.

Ewing brings the longer active streak, but Wellmaker owns the sharper matchup-specific tools: recent stopping power and a 5 cm reach advantage that widens the striking space. Ewing debuting against a longer switch-stance opponent means managing distance early is central. If Ewing can close the gap and drag the fight out of open-space exchanges, he pulls Wellmaker away from where the finishing threat lives.

Daukaus's ability to stuff takedowns and keep this standing runs directly into any effort by Meerschaert to drag it to the mat, where the veteran's grappling would matter most. If Daukaus keeps it upright, his rising volume and recent power take over, and Meerschaert has recently been on the wrong end of a stoppage. Meerschaert's best route is changing levels early rather than trading at range.

Mariscal owns the longer active winning run, but Sabatini holds the sharper matchup-specific tools once this hits the mat. Standing, Mariscal's volume and forward pressure set the terms, and his slightly better gas tank grows in value late. Sabatini's route runs through level changes and top position, where his control and submission threat become the central danger. The fight likely turns on whether Mariscal can keep it upright or Sabatini can drag it down and hold him there.

Susurkaev's finishing threat carries the early danger, backed by his pressure and the ability to dictate where the fight happens: he can attack the takedown or keep it standing on his terms. McConico's recent stoppage exposure matters most against that finishing pressure. If he weathers the opening exchanges and drags this deeper, the picture opens up, but the burden is on him to survive Susurkaev's push early and blunt the volume.

The striking phase belongs to Borshchev's pressure and output, while the mat swings hard the other way, where Camilo's level changes and top control take over. That tension defines the fight: if Camilo closes distance and grounds him, he can dictate from top. If Borshchev keeps it standing behind his volume, he steers the exchanges. Camilo's range work and durability help him weather the striking long enough to shoot.