← UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev
Gregory Rodrigues vs Roman Kopylov
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11-15
53.3%
Model
59.8%
Market
1.61
Odds
-6.4
Edge (pp)
Style Matchup
established · 10 UFC fightsestablished · 10 fights
STRIKING
P78
Striking Initiative
P63
P71
Volume
P71
P90
Striking Efficiency
P96
P91
Range Sniper
P99
P72
Kickboxing
P98
P55
Clinch Striking
P10
P21
Defensive Striking
P43
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P76
Wrestling
P42
P75
Pressure Wrestling
P32
P70
Top Control
P32
P33
Submission
P2
P96
Anti-Wrestling
P34
P97
Grappling Defense
P76
P61
Scrambler
P6
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P92
Power
P94
P87
Finisher
P92
P38
Damage Resistance
P91
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P89
Fast Starter
P46
P84
Pace
P22
P41
Late Fighter
P57
GLOBAL
P95
Versatility
P79
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
RodriguesKopylov
5.53Landed / min4.74
4.97Absorbed / min5.08
52%Accuracy50%
51%Defense53%
1.06KD / 150.77
0.45KD abs / 150.13
Grappling / Wrestling
RodriguesKopylov
2.26TD / 151.02
5.73TD att / 152.43
39%TD accuracy42%
90%TD defense88%
3:13Control / 151:18
0.30Sub att / 150.00
Targets
RodriguesKopylov
Head75%|65%
Body20%|19%
Leg5%|16%
Position
RodriguesKopylov
Distance82%|93%
Clinch11%|4%
Ground7%|3%
Ranking evolution Rodrigues Kopylov
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Gregory Rodrigues
Gregory Rodrigues brings the sturdier résumé here, with an 8-3 UFC mark and wins in four of his last five, including work against ranked opposition. He offers the more meaningful threat to change levels and grind from top position, his defense has been sharpening lately, and he carries recent finishing momentum.
Roman Kopylov
Roman Kopylov sits at 6-4 in the UFC with three wins in his last five. His durability and damage absorption have held up well recently, and his control on the mat has been trending upward, giving him more to offer in grappling exchanges than he once did.
Matchup Read
Rodrigues's push to get the fight down and work from top meets a Kopylov whose ground control has been climbing, so the mat may not be the one-way street the takedowns suggest. Standing, Rodrigues's reach and the orthodox-southpaw crossing shape the angles, while Kopylov's recent ability to eat shots keeps him live in exchanges. Whether Rodrigues can turn takedown entries into sustained control is the pivot point.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Rodrigues's takedowns convert into extended top control or Kopylov reverses and works up.
- Standing: how the 8 cm height gap and crossed stances dictate who dictates range in the pocket.
- Durability: whether Kopylov's recent ability to absorb Rodrigues's power holds as exchanges stack up.