← UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev
Leon Edwards vs Carlos Prates
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11-15
54.8%
Model
36.3%
Market
2.65
Odds
+18.5
Edge (pp)
established · 18 UFC fightsestablished · 18 fights
Style Matchup
STRIKING
P10
Striking Initiative
P39
P12
Volume
P40
P79
Striking Efficiency
P95
P64
Range Sniper
P100
P83
Kickboxing
P97
P85
Clinch Striking
P7
P43
Defensive Striking
P19
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P46
Wrestling
P34
P39
Pressure Wrestling
P2
P44
Top Control
P11
P37
Submission
P17
P29
Anti-Wrestling
P30
P49
Grappling Defense
P87
P86
Scrambler
P18
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P40
Power
P100
P6
Finisher
P94
P98
Damage Resistance
P81
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P52
Fast Starter
P56
P16
Pace
P1
P65
Late Fighter
P6
GLOBAL
P65
Versatility
P44
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
EdwardsPrates
2.60Landed / min3.71
2.44Absorbed / min4.92
54%Accuracy53%
53%Defense48%
0.23KD / 152.08
0.05KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
EdwardsPrates
1.20TD / 150.26
3.29TD att / 150.26
37%TD accuracy100%
64%TD defense87%
3:07Control / 150:48
0.37Sub att / 150.00
Targets
EdwardsPrates
Head57%|54%
Body24%|22%
Leg20%|23%
Position
EdwardsPrates
Distance75%|93%
Clinch14%|0%
Ground11%|7%
Ranking evolution Edwards Prates
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Leon Edwards
Edwards comes in at 14-4 in the UFC and 22-5 overall, with a strong knack for scrambling off his back and returning to his feet whenever he's put on the mat. His most recent setback came against the No. 6-ranked opponent, and he's been out 7.8 months.
Carlos Prates
Prates carries real closing power, having stopped opponents consistently across his recent run, and his 4/5 in his last five UFC fights includes a win over the No. 10-ranked opponent. A switch-stance striker with a 10 cm reach advantage, he adds steady output and pressure, plus ground control that's been climbing lately.
Matchup Read
Prates' finishing power and 10 cm of reach meet Edwards' ability to reset back to the feet when grounded. On the outside, the longer frame and higher output give Prates room to work, while Edwards' path runs through closing that distance and using scrambles to neutralize the mat game Prates has been building. If Edwards gets dragged into extended range exchanges, the finishing threat compounds; if he keeps forcing resets, Prates' momentum stalls.
What to Watch
- Distance: whether Edwards can close inside the reach or gets kept at the end of Prates' strikes.
- Grappling: how quickly Edwards works back to his feet when the fight hits the mat.
- Late rounds: whether Prates' pressure and finishing threat still carry force as the fight wears on.