← UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev
Bo Nickal vs Rodolfo Vieira
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11-15
56.4%
Model
67.7%
Market
1.42
Odds
-11.3
Edge (pp)
Style Matchup
established · 9 UFC fightsestablished · 9 fights
STRIKING
P9
Striking Initiative
P22
P3
Volume
P22
P74
Striking Efficiency
P88
P60
Range Sniper
P54
P86
Kickboxing
P88
P44
Clinch Striking
P18
P62
Defensive Striking
P23
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P69
Wrestling
P82
P50
Pressure Wrestling
P82
P87
Top Control
P87
P86
Submission
P97
P61
Anti-Wrestling
P72
P90
Grappling Defense
P85
P34
Scrambler
P30
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P57
Power
P1
P85
Finisher
P95
P28
Damage Resistance
P79
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P80
Fast Starter
P83
P28
Pace
P72
P35
Late Fighter
P85
GLOBAL
P87
Versatility
P96
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
NickalVieira
2.29Landed / min3.77
2.23Absorbed / min4.12
59%Accuracy56%
59%Defense52%
0.44KD / 150.00
0.44KD abs / 150.17
Grappling / Wrestling
NickalVieira
2.20TD / 153.09
5.29TD att / 1513.38
42%TD accuracy23%
100%TD defense100%
5:26Control / 154:46
1.76Sub att / 151.03
Targets
NickalVieira
Head50%|70%
Body26%|12%
Leg24%|18%
Position
NickalVieira
Distance85%|88%
Clinch8%|5%
Ground8%|7%
Ranking evolution Nickal Vieira
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Bo Nickal
Bo Nickal comes in at 4-1 in the UFC and 7-1 overall, with wins over the No. 21-ranked level of opposition. His cardio holds up over the distance, and at middleweight he carries a reach and frame advantage, working from a southpaw stance behind an 8 cm reach edge.
Rodolfo Vieira
Rodolfo Vieira sits at 6-3 in the UFC and 11-3 overall, riding a one-fight win streak. His damage absorption has held up recently and his defense has been trending upward. On the mat he's dangerous at scrambling back to his feet, and he brings slightly more volume and pressure standing.
Matchup Read
Vieira's ability to escape bottom control and get back up meets Nickal's need to keep exchanges where his gas tank and length matter. If Vieira's slight edge in getting the fight down connects, the question becomes whether he can hold position or whether he pops back to the feet into Nickal's range. Over a longer fight, Nickal's cardio grows in value; Vieira's recent durability and volume give him a path in earlier striking exchanges.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Vieira scrambles back to his feet quickly or gets stuck under top pressure once the fight hits the mat.
- Early striking: whether Vieira's volume closes the 8 cm reach gap or Nickal keeps him at the end of his southpaw range.
- Late rounds: whether Nickal's cardio starts dictating pace as the fight wears on.