← UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev
Jack Della Maddalena vs Islam Makhachev
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11-15
56.1%
Model
29.8%
Market
3.22
Odds
+26.3
Edge (pp)
established · 8 UFC fightsestablished · 8 fights
Style Matchup
established · 17 UFC fightsestablished · 17 fights
STRIKING
P99
Striking Initiative
P33
P97
Volume
P7
P98
Striking Efficiency
P49
P98
Range Sniper
P15
P93
Kickboxing
P17
P46
Clinch Striking
P94
P96
Defensive Striking
P55
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P7
Wrestling
P93
P11
Pressure Wrestling
P88
P5
Top Control
P97
P44
Submission
P92
P13
Anti-Wrestling
P99
P34
Grappling Defense
P98
P10
Scrambler
P96
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P95
Power
P44
P76
Finisher
P54
P87
Damage Resistance
P48
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P84
Fast Starter
P100
P30
Pace
P76
P71
Late Fighter
P27
GLOBAL
P69
Versatility
P97
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
MaddalenaMakhachev
6.78Landed / min2.63
4.58Absorbed / min1.55
54%Accuracy59%
64%Defense61%
1.13KD / 150.35
0.00KD abs / 150.17
Grappling / Wrestling
MaddalenaMakhachev
0.19TD / 153.20
1.13TD att / 155.97
17%TD accuracy54%
69%TD defense91%
0:35Control / 157:07
0.19Sub att / 151.13
Targets
MaddalenaMakhachev
Head65%|73%
Body26%|24%
Leg9%|4%
Position
MaddalenaMakhachev
Distance85%|57%
Clinch9%|19%
Ground6%|24%
Ranking evolution Maddalena Makhachev
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Jack Della Maddalena
Jack Della Maddalena rides an 18-fight win streak, 8-0 in the UFC with his most recent win coming over the No. 1-ranked opponent. His game centers on high-volume, pressuring striking, and he carries an 8 cm reach advantage that lets him work from range.
Islam Makhachev
Islam Makhachev brings a 27-1 record and a 15-fight win streak, most recently beating the No. 9-ranked opponent. His strengths run through the grappling: heavy top control once the fight hits the mat, and a real finishing threat there, including recent submission success. He's also slightly sharper defensively at range and holds up well to damage.
Matchup Read
Standing favors Della Maddalena's pressure and output behind the longer reach; the floor is where Makhachev's control and submission threat take over. The fight hinges on where it's contested. If Makhachev closes distance and lands takedowns, his top game and finishing danger become the story. If Della Maddalena keeps it upright and forces exchanges, his volume dictates the pace. Makhachev's slight defensive edge at range complicates the striking read.
What to Watch
- Early phase: whether Della Maddalena keeps range and volume, or Makhachev shoots and changes levels off the exchanges.
- Grappling: how much time Makhachev holds top position and whether he threatens submissions once there.
- Striking defense: whether Makhachev's tighter defense at range blunts Della Maddalena's output on the feet.