← UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev
Pat Sabatini vs Chepe Mariscal
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11-15
55.1%
Model
48.8%
Market
1.97
Odds
+6.2
Edge (pp)
established · 9 UFC fightsestablished · 9 fights
Style Matchup
limited sample · 5 UFC fightslimited · 5 fights
STRIKING
P23
Striking Initiative
P86
P2
Volume
P59
P18
Striking Efficiency
P70
P2
Range Sniper
P25
P2
Kickboxing
P35
P52
Clinch Striking
P93
P14
Defensive Striking
P30
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P94
Wrestling
P82
P99
Pressure Wrestling
P71
P100
Top Control
P81
P96
Submission
P30
P78
Anti-Wrestling
P91
P36
Grappling Defense
P76
P92
Scrambler
P92
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P19
Power
P11
P59
Finisher
P17
P26
Damage Resistance
P75
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P93
Fast Starter
P84
P85
Pace
P96
P22
Late Fighter
P11
GLOBAL
P43
Versatility
P82
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
SabatiniMariscal
1.87Landed / min4.95
1.22Absorbed / min3.07
62%Accuracy56%
50%Defense52%
0.20KD / 150.00
0.20KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
SabatiniMariscal
3.98TD / 152.85
8.15TD att / 157.25
49%TD accuracy39%
50%TD defense73%
10:33Control / 155:03
1.79Sub att / 150.22
Targets
SabatiniMariscal
Head78%|67%
Body16%|16%
Leg6%|17%
Position
SabatiniMariscal
Distance33%|55%
Clinch9%|23%
Ground58%|22%
Ranking evolution Sabatini Mariscal
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Pat Sabatini
Pat Sabatini's strengths run through his grappling: heavy top control once the fight hits the mat and a real finishing threat there, with submissions his most consistent path to ending fights. He rides a 2-fight win streak, and both his striking and ground control have been trending upward lately. Sits at 20-5 overall, 7-2 in the UFC.
Chepe Mariscal
Chepe Mariscal brings a busy, pressuring striking game, working behind volume and forward pace. He carries an 8-fight win streak and a perfect 5-0 UFC run, 18-6 across all organizations, though against mostly modest regional opposition. His cardio holds up slightly better deep into the fight.
Matchup Read
Mariscal owns the longer active winning run, but Sabatini holds the sharper matchup-specific tools once this hits the mat. Standing, Mariscal's volume and forward pressure set the terms, and his slightly better gas tank grows in value late. Sabatini's route runs through level changes and top position, where his control and submission threat become the central danger. The fight likely turns on whether Mariscal can keep it upright or Sabatini can drag it down and hold him there.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Mariscal's forward volume keeps Sabatini backing up or Sabatini shoots to close distance.
- Grappling: if Sabatini secures top position, watch how quickly he transitions toward submissions.
- Late rounds: whether Mariscal's pace holds up or Sabatini's control time starts stacking up.