← UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan
Christian Leroy Duncan vs Brendan Allen
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan · 2026-10-10
67.2%
Model
46.1%
Market
2.09
Odds
+21.0
Edge (pp)
established · 10 UFC fightsestablished · 10 fights
Style Matchup
established · 19 UFC fightsestablished · 19 fights
STRIKING
P88
Striking Initiative
P42
P72
Volume
P36
P93
Striking Efficiency
P82
P76
Range Sniper
P56
P91
Kickboxing
P75
P91
Clinch Striking
P21
P56
Defensive Striking
P11
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P8
Wrestling
P58
P28
Pressure Wrestling
P42
P38
Top Control
P63
P6
Submission
P94
P15
Anti-Wrestling
P85
P11
Grappling Defense
P42
P56
Scrambler
P97
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P84
Power
P20
P67
Finisher
P72
P85
Damage Resistance
P75
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P84
Fast Starter
P92
P62
Pace
P58
P13
Late Fighter
P40
GLOBAL
P31
Versatility
P79
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
DuncanAllen
4.45Landed / min3.74
2.36Absorbed / min3.74
58%Accuracy52%
54%Defense48%
0.43KD / 150.20
0.00KD abs / 150.13
Grappling / Wrestling
DuncanAllen
0.43TD / 151.48
2.13TD att / 153.50
20%TD accuracy42%
58%TD defense56%
3:03Control / 154:27
0.00Sub att / 151.01
Targets
DuncanAllen
Head49%|66%
Body17%|21%
Leg34%|14%
Position
DuncanAllen
Distance74%|78%
Clinch19%|7%
Ground7%|15%
Ranking evolution Duncan Allen
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Christian Leroy Duncan
Christian Leroy Duncan rides a five-fight win streak, going 5/5 in his last five UFC outings with a win over the No. 14-ranked opponent. He carries a 10 cm reach advantage, uses that frame to manage range, and his stand-up has been sharpening. Switch stance, with a chin that holds up under fire.
Brendan Allen
Brendan Allen brings a deep 27-7 record and 15 UFC wins, currently on a three-fight run. His most meaningful threat is on the mat, where his submission game is a real finishing danger and his top control has been trending upward. An orthodox fighter with the more tested résumé.
Matchup Read
Standing favors Duncan's length and range control; the ground brings Allen's submission danger into play. The central question is whether Allen can close that 10 cm gap and drag the fight to the mat, where his top game and finishing threat become live. Duncan's job is to keep it standing and defend entries over five rounds. If Allen gets consistent control time, his path opens; if he can't, Duncan's distance work dictates.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Allen can complete entries against the fence and hold Duncan down long enough to hunt submissions.
- Early striking: whether Duncan keeps Allen at the end of his reach and stacks clean exchanges from range.
- Late rounds: with five scheduled, watch who imposes their phase as control time and distance work accumulate.