← UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy
Christian Leroy Duncan vs Roman Dolidze
UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · 2026-03-21
66.4%
Model
74.0%
Market
1.30
Odds
-7.6
Edge (pp)
Style Matchup
established · 13 UFC fightsestablished · 13 fights
STRIKING
P84
Striking Initiative
P37
P67
Volume
P48
P91
Striking Efficiency
P19
P80
Range Sniper
P33
P85
Kickboxing
P32
P91
Clinch Striking
P6
P36
Defensive Striking
P13
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P10
Wrestling
P37
P28
Pressure Wrestling
P57
P51
Top Control
P73
P8
Submission
P46
P7
Anti-Wrestling
P78
P42
Grappling Defense
P22
P27
Scrambler
P60
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P91
Power
P72
P89
Finisher
P60
P81
Damage Resistance
P94
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P83
Fast Starter
P43
P61
Pace
P57
P11
Late Fighter
P62
GLOBAL
P46
Versatility
P9
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
DuncanDolidze
4.60Landed / min3.41
2.97Absorbed / min3.72
59%Accuracy42%
52%Defense49%
0.60KD / 150.36
0.00KD abs / 150.09
Grappling / Wrestling
DuncanDolidze
0.40TD / 150.99
1.99TD att / 152.52
20%TD accuracy39%
69%TD defense26%
3:35Control / 153:37
0.00Sub att / 150.81
Targets
DuncanDolidze
Head51%|63%
Body16%|15%
Leg33%|22%
Position
DuncanDolidze
Distance73%|81%
Clinch19%|6%
Ground8%|13%
Ranking evolution Duncan Dolidze
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Christian Leroy Duncan
Christian Leroy Duncan rides a three-fight win streak and hits hard, with real knockout power and finishing momentum across his recent outings. He keeps fights standing well, defends takedowns at a high level, and his ground control and defense have both been trending upward. Adds an 8 cm reach advantage and steady output behind pressure.
Roman Dolidze
Roman Dolidze brings a deeper cage résumé at 9-4 in the UFC and 15-4 overall, with three wins in his last five. His last loss came against the No. 13-ranked opponent, keeping him in tested territory at middleweight.
Matchup Read
Standing, Duncan's edge in output, power and the 8 cm of reach shapes the exchanges, and his takedown defense complicates any effort by Dolidze to change levels and drag it to the mat. If Dolidze can close the distance and get grappling entries working, the fight shifts into deeper waters for Duncan; if he can't, he's forced to trade at range against the longer, harder-hitting man on the feet.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Duncan uses the reach to keep Dolidze at the end of his punches or Dolidze closes the gap.
- Grappling: how often Dolidze shoots and whether Duncan's takedown defense keeps the fight vertical.
- Late rounds: whether Duncan's power carries over the distance or Dolidze grinds his way into control positions.