← UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown
Christian Leroy Duncan vs Marco Tulio
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · 2025-11-08
61.1%
Model
42.3%
Market
2.28
Odds
+18.8
Edge (pp)
limited sample · 7 UFC fightslimited · 7 fights
Style Matchup
provisional · 2 UFC fightsprovisional · 2 fights
STRIKING
P86
Striking Initiative
P100
P68
Volume
P98
P93
Striking Efficiency
P99
P75
Range Sniper
P95
P86
Kickboxing
P97
P92
Clinch Striking
P26
P36
Defensive Striking
P81
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P8
Wrestling
P21
P32
Pressure Wrestling
P3
P56
Top Control
P68
P8
Submission
P10
P8
Anti-Wrestling
P50
P46
Grappling Defense
P65
P28
Scrambler
P34
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P86
Power
P99
P87
Finisher
P64
P78
Damage Resistance
P44
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P90
Fast Starter
P84
P70
Pace
P61
P9
Late Fighter
—
GLOBAL
P49
Versatility
P74
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
DuncanTulio
4.83Landed / min13.76
2.94Absorbed / min2.03
59%Accuracy68%
51%Defense69%
0.45KD / 153.97
0.00KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
DuncanTulio
0.22TD / 150.00
2.01TD att / 150.00
11%TD accuracy—
71%TD defense—
3:46Control / 151:31
0.00Sub att / 150.00
Targets
DuncanTulio
Head51%|60%
Body16%|29%
Leg32%|11%
Position
DuncanTulio
Distance72%|87%
Clinch20%|3%
Ground8%|10%
Ranking evolution Duncan Tulio
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Christian Leroy Duncan
Christian Leroy Duncan brings a 13cm reach advantage and a taller frame, tools that let him work at range. He's on a 2-fight streak, sitting at 5-2 in the UFC and 12-2 overall, with recent knockout power and finishing momentum in his corner, plus a defense that's been tightening up lately.
Marco Tulio
Marco Tulio pairs high output with forward pressure in the striking, backed by sharp distance management and stand-up defense and a chin that holds up under fire. He rides a 10-fight win streak and a 14-1 overall mark, though his 2-0 UFC run came against modest opposition.
Matchup Read
The striking exchanges are where this gets decided. Tulio's volume and forward pressure meet Duncan's length, so the question is whether Duncan can keep Tulio on the end of his jab or whether Tulio closes the gap and turns it into a phone-booth pace. Tulio's chin and defensive polish help him walk through range; Duncan's recent power gives him something to answer with if Tulio commits to pressing forward.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Duncan uses his 13cm reach to control the range or lets Tulio close the distance.
- Pressure vs power: how Tulio's chin holds up when he walks into Duncan's recent knockout power.
- Late rounds: whether Tulio's higher output keeps compounding as the fight wears on.
Key Uncertainty
Tulio's ceiling is hard to fix with only two UFC fights on record, both against modest opposition, so how his pressure translates against Duncan's level of competition remains an open question.