← UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman
Christian Leroy Duncan vs Jared Cannonier
UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman · 2026-07-18
77.0%
Model
74.5%
Market
1.29
Odds
+2.5
Edge (pp)
Style Matchup
established · 20 UFC fightsestablished · 20 fights
STRIKING
P85
Striking Initiative
P59
P70
Volume
P66
P92
Striking Efficiency
P84
P79
Range Sniper
P83
P89
Kickboxing
P83
P84
Clinch Striking
P68
P47
Defensive Striking
P64
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P7
Wrestling
P20
P26
Pressure Wrestling
P33
P43
Top Control
P38
P7
Submission
P13
P4
Anti-Wrestling
P32
P24
Grappling Defense
P39
P25
Scrambler
P3
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P87
Power
P64
P79
Finisher
P58
P83
Damage Resistance
P35
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P79
Fast Starter
P13
P59
Pace
P21
P9
Late Fighter
P86
GLOBAL
P34
Versatility
P52
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
DuncanCannonier
4.43Landed / min4.42
2.59Absorbed / min4.35
58%Accuracy50%
53%Defense56%
0.50KD / 150.38
0.00KD abs / 150.43
Grappling / Wrestling
DuncanCannonier
0.33TD / 150.54
1.99TD att / 151.35
17%TD accuracy40%
63%TD defense65%
3:11Control / 151:38
0.00Sub att / 150.00
Targets
DuncanCannonier
Head49%|63%
Body15%|20%
Leg36%|17%
Position
DuncanCannonier
Distance76%|81%
Clinch16%|11%
Ground8%|7%
Ranking evolution Duncan Cannonier
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Christian Leroy Duncan
Christian Leroy Duncan rides a 4-fight win streak and sits 7-2 in the UFC, 4 of his last 5, with his most recent victory over the No. 17-ranked opponent. His defense has been tightening lately, and he carries a slight edge in finishing ability, top control once engaged, and durability, plus a 5cm reach and 8cm height advantage.
Jared Cannonier
Jared Cannonier owns the clearer path to the mat in this one, with his ground control trending upward recently. At 11-9 in the UFC and 2 of his last 5, his last win came against the No. 22-ranked opponent. He's been out for 11 months and is 11 years the elder in this pairing.
Matchup Read
Cannonier brings the deeper UFC résumé, but Duncan owns the sharper current tools. The central question is Cannonier's ability to drag this to the canvas against Duncan's size and improving defense. If it stays standing, Duncan's reach, finishing threat and chin keep him in control of the range. If Cannonier lands his entries, his rising top game narrows that advantage and forces Duncan to work back up across three rounds.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Cannonier can close distance and complete takedowns, or Duncan stuffs them and resets at range.
- Early striking: how well Duncan uses his reach and height to keep Cannonier on the end of his strikes.
- On the mat: if Cannonier gets top position, watch whether Duncan scrambles up or Cannonier holds control.