← UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen
Reinier de Ridder vs Brendan Allen
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10-18
70.5%
Model
64.6%
Market
1.49
Odds
+5.9
Edge (pp)
provisional · 4 UFC fightsprovisional · 4 fights
Style Matchup
established · 17 UFC fightsestablished · 17 fights
STRIKING
P76
Striking Initiative
P43
P25
Volume
P38
P61
Striking Efficiency
P86
P34
Range Sniper
P63
P46
Kickboxing
P81
P87
Clinch Striking
P21
P31
Defensive Striking
P10
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P78
Wrestling
P61
P90
Pressure Wrestling
P44
P87
Top Control
P60
P93
Submission
P96
P30
Anti-Wrestling
P81
P49
Grappling Defense
P36
P34
Scrambler
P97
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P59
Power
P20
P88
Finisher
P75
P44
Damage Resistance
P68
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P63
Fast Starter
P98
P89
Pace
P57
P7
Late Fighter
P24
GLOBAL
P67
Versatility
P83
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
RidderAllen
2.95Landed / min3.85
2.44Absorbed / min3.92
53%Accuracy53%
50%Defense48%
0.64KD / 150.24
0.32KD abs / 150.16
Grappling / Wrestling
RidderAllen
2.86TD / 151.60
10.50TD att / 153.75
27%TD accuracy43%
67%TD defense54%
5:47Control / 154:19
0.64Sub att / 151.12
Targets
RidderAllen
Head58%|65%
Body36%|22%
Leg6%|13%
Position
RidderAllen
Distance68%|79%
Clinch19%|6%
Ground12%|15%
Ranking evolution Ridder Allen
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Reinier de Ridder
De Ridder arrives on a five-fight run and a clean 4-0 UFC start, having beaten a top-ten-ranked opponent. His recent work carries genuine finishing power, and the matchup favors his stand-up defense, his ability to defend takedowns and stay upright, and his control once he does get on top. The taller, longer man here, with a durable chin.
Brendan Allen
Allen brings a deep résumé at 13-4 in the UFC and 25-7 overall, with a win over a No. 15-ranked opponent, though he's taken 3 of his last 5 UFC fights. He comes in off a single-fight win, giving up reach and height in this one.
Matchup Read
Early, de Ridder's finishing threat and recent knockout power set the tone, and his reach plus the crossed southpaw-orthodox look give him room to work at range. If Allen tries to change levels, de Ridder's takedown defense keeps it standing, and should it hit the mat, de Ridder's top control becomes the deciding factor. Allen's edge is the volume of tested rounds he can draw on as the fight stretches out.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether de Ridder uses his reach and southpaw angles to keep Allen at the end of his punches.
- Grappling: who dictates when the fight hits the mat, and whether de Ridder can establish and hold top position.
- Late rounds: whether Allen's deeper cage experience lets him drag the fight into territory that rewards his mileage.