← UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan
Brendson Ribeiro vs Felipe Franco
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan · 2026-10-10
51.5%
Model
24.3%
Market
3.96
Odds
+27.3
Edge (pp)
established · 8 UFC fightsestablished · 8 fights
Style Matchup
provisional · 2 UFC fightsprovisional · 2 fights
STRIKING
P7
Striking Initiative
P23
P39
Volume
P19
P14
Striking Efficiency
P58
P60
Range Sniper
P20
P46
Kickboxing
P6
P7
Clinch Striking
P70
P48
Defensive Striking
P38
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P27
Wrestling
P62
P5
Pressure Wrestling
P32
P1
Top Control
P31
P73
Submission
P25
P27
Anti-Wrestling
P7
P4
Grappling Defense
P59
P50
Scrambler
P33
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P44
Power
P32
P91
Finisher
P87
P18
Damage Resistance
P46
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P0
Fast Starter
P9
P2
Pace
P35
P23
Late Fighter
P12
GLOBAL
P9
Versatility
P36
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
RibeiroFranco
2.62Landed / min2.77
3.46Absorbed / min2.08
39%Accuracy52%
52%Defense50%
0.23KD / 150.00
0.47KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
RibeiroFranco
0.70TD / 152.08
1.87TD att / 154.85
38%TD accuracy43%
32%TD defense86%
0:33Control / 152:40
0.47Sub att / 150.00
Targets
RibeiroFranco
Head51%|85%
Body20%|13%
Leg29%|2%
Position
RibeiroFranco
Distance96%|42%
Clinch2%|13%
Ground2%|45%
Ranking evolution Ribeiro Franco
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Brendson Ribeiro
Brendson Ribeiro brings a notable physical package into this one, carrying a 13 cm reach advantage and standing taller, with the longer frame to work behind. His stand-up defense and ability to manage range register as a modest advantage. His record across all organizations sits at 17-11, though his UFC run reads 2-6.
Felipe Franco
Felipe Franco's strengths concentrate in the grappling and the finishing. He defends takedowns well to keep exchanges standing, gets back to his feet from bottom position, and carries real finishing ability, with recent fights ending before the cards. He rides a one-fight win streak and sits at 10-2 overall.
Matchup Read
Standing, Ribeiro's length and range management give him a platform to work behind the longer frame across three rounds. The trouble is that Franco's takedown defense and bottom escapes make it hard to pin him down, while his finishing threat raises the stakes in every exchange. If Ribeiro can keep this at distance and stay disciplined, the reach matters; if Franco closes and forces scrambles, his path to a stoppage opens.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Ribeiro uses his 13 cm reach to keep Franco at the end of his punches or lets him close.
- Grappling: whether Franco stuffs entries and scrambles back up when the fight hits the mat.
- Finishing danger: whether Franco can turn a clean exchange into a stoppage before the scorecards.
Key Uncertainty
Franco has only two UFC fights on record, so how his grappling and finishing translate against this level of competition remains harder to read than his overall numbers suggest.