AIPinto's knockout power and reach meet Franco's chin and his ability to close the gap. With an 8 cm reach adv…

81.9%

Model

81.5%

Market

1.18

Odds

+0.4

Edge (pp)

Mario Pinto

DEC

81.9%18.1%

Felipe Franco

POWER STRIKER

Power

provisional · 2 UFC fightsprovisional · 2 fights

Style Matchup

No UFC data yet

UFC debut · style profile after first fight

STRIKING

P29

Striking Initiative

Volume

P31

Striking Efficiency

P11

Range Sniper

Kickboxing

P40

Clinch Striking

P30

Defensive Striking

GRAPPLING / WRESTLING

P69

Wrestling

P81

Pressure Wrestling

P99

Top Control

P38

Submission

P66

Anti-Wrestling

P71

Grappling Defense

P92

Scrambler

DAMAGE / FINISHING

P98

Power

P58

Finisher

P34

Damage Resistance

FIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill

P37

Fast Starter

P60

Pace

—

Late Fighter

GLOBAL

P47

Versatility

Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.

Striking

PintoFranco

2.83Landed / min—

2.23Absorbed / min—

75%Accuracy—

51%Defense—

1.01KD / 15—

1.01KD abs / 15—

Grappling / Wrestling

PintoFranco

3.04TD / 15—

5.06TD att / 15—

60%TD accuracy—

100%TD defense—

7:52Control / 15—

2.02Sub att / 15—

Targets

Position

Ranking evolution Pinto Franco

AI Matchup Analysis

Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.

Mario Pinto

Mario Pinto arrives unbeaten at 11-0, riding an 11-fight win streak with 2-0 in the UFC and a win over the No. 50-ranked opponent. His recent run leans on knockout power and a habit of closing out fights, and he carries the longer frame into the cage. Last out 5.3 months ago.

Felipe Franco

Felipe Franco steps in for his UFC debut at 9-1 across all organizations, on a modest two-fight win streak. Without a promotional track record, the reading rests on that overall record and what he brings to a first Octagon appearance at heavyweight.

Matchup Read

Pinto's knockout power and reach meet Franco's chin and his ability to close the gap. With an 8 cm reach advantage, Pinto can work behind his length and load up early, so the fight may hinge on whether Franco can get past that range and drag exchanges into territory where the size gap matters less. If Franco stays at the end of Pinto's punches, the finishing threat grows.

What to Watch

Early striking: whether Franco can close the reach gap or gets caught at the end of Pinto's punches.
Finishing danger: how Franco absorbs Pinto's power in the opening exchanges.
Distance: whether Pinto keeps the fight at range or Franco forces closer, uglier trades.

Key Uncertainty

With Pinto holding only two UFC fights and Franco making his promotional debut, there's little top-level shared context to gauge how either holds up against this level of opposition.

Mario Pinto vs Felipe Franco