← UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot
Mario Pinto vs Jhonata Diniz
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10-11
Mario PintoLow Data
55.7%
Model
56.6%
Market
1.70
Odds
-1.0
Edge (pp)
Style Matchup
provisional · 4 UFC fightsprovisional · 4 fights
STRIKING
P13
Striking Initiative
P56
P3
Volume
P64
P98
Striking Efficiency
P100
P100
Range Sniper
P100
P100
Kickboxing
P100
P54
Clinch Striking
P13
P38
Defensive Striking
P96
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P28
Wrestling
P10
P9
Pressure Wrestling
P0
P5
Top Control
P1
P7
Submission
P0
P32
Anti-Wrestling
P3
P62
Grappling Defense
P48
P35
Scrambler
P24
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P99
Power
P80
P50
Finisher
P70
P34
Damage Resistance
P71
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P4
Fast Starter
P3
P0
Pace
P1
—
Late Fighter
P77
GLOBAL
P32
Versatility
P33
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
PintoDiniz
2.30Landed / min4.36
5.66Absorbed / min3.45
57%Accuracy59%
49%Defense62%
2.65KD / 150.32
2.65KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
PintoDiniz
0.00TD / 150.00
2.65TD att / 150.00
0%TD accuracy—
100%TD defense77%
0:48Control / 150:22
0.00Sub att / 150.00
Targets
PintoDiniz
Head62%|75%
Body15%|5%
Leg23%|20%
Position
PintoDiniz
Distance92%|94%
Clinch8%|3%
Ground0%|3%
Ranking evolution Pinto Diniz
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Mario Pinto
Mario Pinto arrives unbeaten at 10-0 across all organizations, riding a 10-fight win streak and coming off a winning UFC debut. His most usable tool in this pairing is his takedown defense, and his defensive work has been trending upward lately, though his wins have come against modest regional opposition.
Jhonata Diniz
Jhonata Diniz brings the more tested résumé at 3-1 in the UFC, his only loss coming to a No. 13-ranked opponent. He carries the stronger wrestling in this matchup, a solid recent chin, and steady striking volume that has been climbing, backed by real experience against higher-level competition.
Matchup Read
Early, Pinto's takedown defense is the pivot point: if he keeps this standing, Diniz has to win at range, where his output edge is only modest. Diniz's clearer path is grounding Pinto and leaning on his top game. As the fight wears on, Diniz's tested durability and rising striking volume grow in value, while Pinto's unbeaten run has yet to face this caliber.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Pinto's sprawl stuffs Diniz's level changes or the fight keeps hitting the mat.
- Striking: whether Diniz's volume pressures Pinto backward, or Pinto holds his ground at distance.
- Late rounds: whether Diniz's chin and output hold up while Pinto's pace stays intact against a step up in competition.
Key Uncertainty
With only a single UFC fight on Pinto's record, there's limited high-level footage to gauge how his unbeaten regional run translates against a more tested opponent like Diniz.