← UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan
Otari Tanzilovi vs Malcolm Wellmaker
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan · 2026-10-10
Otari TanziloviLow Data
67.6%
Model
32.7%
Market
2.94
Odds
+34.8
Edge (pp)
Style Matchup
provisional · 4 UFC fightsprovisional · 4 fights
STRIKING
P21
Striking Initiative
P64
P15
Volume
P71
P93
Striking Efficiency
P91
P70
Range Sniper
P98
P78
Kickboxing
P87
P87
Clinch Striking
P91
P13
Defensive Striking
P40
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P82
Wrestling
P8
P99
Pressure Wrestling
P17
P72
Top Control
P8
P3
Submission
P16
P28
Anti-Wrestling
P19
P54
Grappling Defense
P13
P33
Scrambler
P26
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P36
Power
P96
P43
Finisher
P71
P46
Damage Resistance
P64
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
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Fast Starter
P88
P45
Pace
P12
P59
Late Fighter
P35
GLOBAL
P61
Versatility
P14
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
TanziloviWellmaker
3.87Landed / min4.28
5.07Absorbed / min3.93
65%Accuracy53%
45%Defense52%
0.00KD / 151.04
0.00KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
TanziloviWellmaker
5.00TD / 150.00
9.00TD att / 151.57
56%TD accuracy0%
100%TD defense43%
4:14Control / 150:42
0.00Sub att / 150.00
Targets
TanziloviWellmaker
Head66%|41%
Body26%|46%
Leg9%|13%
Position
TanziloviWellmaker
Distance71%|77%
Clinch29%|23%
Ground0%|0%
Ranking evolution Tanzilovi Wellmaker
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Otari Tanzilovi
Tanzilovi's strengths live in the grappling exchanges: he can change levels and get the fight to the mat, and he's equally comfortable stuffing takedowns to keep things where he wants. His striking output has been trending upward lately. He carries a 10-2 record across all organizations and has not been stopped recently.
Malcolm Wellmaker
Wellmaker is the more polished striker here, with a slight edge in managing range and defending on the feet, plus the ability to turn an exchange into a finish. He's shown he can take a shot. At 2-2 in the UFC with two wins in his last four, he's also 10-2 across all organizations, switching stances to vary his looks.
Matchup Read
Wellmaker owns the UFC exposure and the sharper stand-up tools, but the matchup-specific technical edges sit with Tanzilovi's wrestling. The fight splits cleanly: if it stays standing, Wellmaker's range work and finishing threat come forward, and Tanzilovi has recently tasted a stoppage. If Tanzilovi can change levels and plant him on the mat, he dictates where the action goes and takes the striking out of play.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Tanzilovi's level changes land cleanly or Wellmaker keeps it standing to work at range.
- Early striking: how well Wellmaker uses his switching looks and distance to keep Tanzilovi from closing to the clinch.
- Late rounds: whether the fight is still on the feet across three rounds or grinding on the mat.
Key Uncertainty
With only one UFC appearance to judge Tanzilovi against, how his grappling holds up against this level of opposition over three rounds is the main thing that's hard to read here.