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Juan Diaz vs Malcolm Wellmaker
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · 2026-05-16
Juan DiazLow Data
72.7%
Model
29.5%
Market
3.27
Odds
+43.2
Edge (pp)
No UFC data yet
UFC debut · style profile after first fight
Style Matchup
provisional · 3 UFC fightsprovisional · 3 fights
STRIKING
Striking Initiative
P82
Volume
P77
Striking Efficiency
P94
Range Sniper
P99
Kickboxing
P87
Clinch Striking
P91
Defensive Striking
P37
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
Wrestling
P12
Pressure Wrestling
P25
Top Control
P35
Submission
P20
Anti-Wrestling
P37
Grappling Defense
P34
Scrambler
P30
DAMAGE / FINISHING
Power
P98
Finisher
P69
Damage Resistance
P59
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
Fast Starter
P83
Pace
P27
Late Fighter
P35
GLOBAL
Versatility
P33
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
DiazWellmaker
—Landed / min5.51
—Absorbed / min5.10
—Accuracy55%
—Defense52%
—KD / 151.53
—KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
DiazWellmaker
—TD / 150.00
—TD att / 152.30
—TD accuracy0%
—TD defense50%
—Control / 151:01
—Sub att / 150.00
Targets
DiazWellmaker
Head—|44%
Body—|44%
Leg—|12%
Position
DiazWellmaker
Distance—|75%
Clinch—|25%
Ground—|0%
Ranking evolution Diaz Wellmaker
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Juan Diaz
Juan Diaz enters on an eight-fight winning run with a 15-1 record across all organizations, and his results against better competition stand out more than Wellmaker's. He makes his UFC walk here, carrying momentum built outside the promotion.
Malcolm Wellmaker
Malcolm Wellmaker is 2-1 in the UFC and 10-1 overall, and his most consistent asset is his ability to close the show before the scorecards, with real finishing momentum in his recent outings. He owns a modest reach and height advantage of 5 cm each and works from a switch stance.
Matchup Read
Wellmaker's finishing threat meets Diaz's proven results against sterner competition, and that collision defines this one. If Wellmaker closes distance behind his reach and switch-stance looks, the early minutes carry his danger. Diaz's task is to weather that window, extend the fight, and lean on the quality that built his streak. The longer it stays competitive across three rounds, the more Diaz's resume of tougher wins becomes relevant.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Wellmaker uses his 5 cm reach and stance switches to land clean before Diaz settles in.
- Finishing windows: how Diaz responds in exchanges where Wellmaker looks to close the show.
- Late rounds: whether Diaz can carry things deep into the third and shift the fight toward contested territory.
Key Uncertainty
Diaz is making his UFC debut with no promotional history to read, so how his record across smaller organizations translates against this level of opposition remains the open question.