Standing, Costa brings the recent finishing threat and power, while the ground tilts toward his top control if he can plant Allen there. That hands Allen a clear job: lean on his takedown defense to keep this upright and avoid the mat, where Costa's control plays. Over five rounds, Costa's edge in holding pace late raises the stakes of any extended grind, making Allen's ability to stuff entries and stay off his back the pivot point.

On the feet, Choi's length and range control meet Santos's rising output, so whoever dictates distance across three rounds shapes the striking. Santos has the slight means to change levels and get the fight down, where Choi's reach matters less. If Santos mixes in takedowns rather than trading at range, he pulls Choi out of his more comfortable long-range exchanges.

Wellmaker's finishing threat meets Diaz's proven results against sterner competition, and that collision defines this one. If Wellmaker closes distance behind his reach and switch-stance looks, the early minutes carry his danger. Diaz's task is to weather that window, extend the fight, and lean on the quality that built his streak. The longer it stays competitive across three rounds, the more Diaz's resume of tougher wins becomes relevant.

Bukauskas brings the tested résumé and the heavier recent firepower, while Edwards owns the matchup-specific physical tools. The length and southpaw look give Edwards space to work behind, so Bukauskas will need to close that distance to land his power, where his finishing threat becomes the central danger. Edwards' recent exposure to a stoppage loss raises the stakes in those exchanges if Bukauskas gets inside the reach.

On the feet, Cuamba's length and sharper distance management favor keeping Sopaj on the end of his strikes, where the reach gap shapes the exchanges. Sopaj's path runs through pressure and level changes: if he closes the gap, his takedowns and ground finishing become the central danger. The read is Cuamba managing range across three rounds against Sopaj's drive to compress space and finish.

Williams brings the better recent résumé against ranked opposition, but the matchup-specific tools tilt toward Veretennikov's grappling. The fight splits on where it's fought: if Williams uses his 8 cm reach to keep Veretennikov at the end of his strikes, he dictates the exchanges. If Veretennikov closes distance and changes levels, his top control and finishing momentum become the story over three rounds.

Early, Erslan's takedown defense is the gatekeeper: if he keeps this standing, he neutralizes Tokkos' path to the mat and the submission threat that follows. The longer Tokkos needs, the more his cardio and late-fight pace tilt things, and his length can keep Erslan working from the outside. If a takedown lands, Tokkos' finishing and submission game become the central danger over three rounds.

Petroski's ability to defend takedowns and dictate where the fight happens runs straight into Brundage's rising ground control, so the central battle is positional: whether Brundage can secure top position or whether Petroski keeps it in open space. If Petroski manages distance, his stand-up defense and durability let him work standing; if Brundage ties him up and gets the fight down, his improving control becomes the deciding factor over three rounds.

Gurule's push to get the fight down meets Barez's finishing threat, and that collision shapes the read. If Gurule changes levels and leans on his conditioning, he can grind through three rounds and keep Barez from the clean looks he needs. Kept standing, Barez has the reach to work behind and the pop to end it early. Whether Gurule's level changes land decides which fight this becomes.