← UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa
Ivan Erslan vs Tuco Tokkos
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · 2026-05-16
55.5%
Model
61.3%
Market
1.57
Odds
-5.9
Edge (pp)
provisional · 3 UFC fightsprovisional · 3 fights
Style Matchup
STRIKING
P5
Striking Initiative
P0
P9
Volume
P1
P75
Striking Efficiency
P3
P41
Range Sniper
P4
P89
Kickboxing
P13
P38
Clinch Striking
P41
P42
Defensive Striking
P16
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P20
Wrestling
P87
P54
Pressure Wrestling
P96
P60
Top Control
P87
P7
Submission
P54
P50
Anti-Wrestling
P20
P43
Grappling Defense
P11
P61
Scrambler
P34
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P26
Power
P13
P57
Finisher
P73
P48
Damage Resistance
P59
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P8
Fast Starter
P85
P5
Pace
P40
P9
Late Fighter
P59
GLOBAL
P41
Versatility
P11
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
ErslanTokkos
2.55Landed / min1.64
5.01Absorbed / min3.63
46%Accuracy40%
54%Defense48%
0.00KD / 150.00
0.45KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
ErslanTokkos
0.45TD / 154.27
2.25TD att / 159.60
20%TD accuracy44%
62%TD defense33%
3:11Control / 156:06
0.00Sub att / 150.53
Targets
ErslanTokkos
Head78%|57%
Body16%|11%
Leg6%|33%
Position
ErslanTokkos
Distance93%|76%
Clinch6%|9%
Ground1%|15%
Ranking evolution Erslan Tokkos
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Ivan Erslan
Ivan Erslan carries a 14-6 mark across all organizations but sits 0-3 in the UFC, with his last win coming against lower-ranked opposition and his most recent loss to the No. 39-ranked opponent. His most reliable tool here is defending takedowns and keeping exchanges upright.
Tuco Tokkos
Tuco Tokkos brings the longer frame, with a 10 cm reach advantage, and comes in on a one-fight win streak. His recent run shows finishing momentum and a live submission threat, backed by the ability to hold pace deep into a fight and slight edges in distance management and getting the fight down.
Matchup Read
Early, Erslan's takedown defense is the gatekeeper: if he keeps this standing, he neutralizes Tokkos' path to the mat and the submission threat that follows. The longer Tokkos needs, the more his cardio and late-fight pace tilt things, and his length can keep Erslan working from the outside. If a takedown lands, Tokkos' finishing and submission game become the central danger over three rounds.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Erslan's sprawl holds up against Tokkos' level changes, or the fight repeatedly hits the mat.
- Striking: how Erslan handles the 10 cm reach gap and whether he can close the distance behind it.
- Late rounds: whether Tokkos' pace carries into the third while Erslan's output holds.