← UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes
Jimmy Crute vs Ivan Erslan
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09-27
67.1%
Model
67.4%
Market
1.43
Odds
-0.2
Edge (pp)
established · 9 UFC fightsestablished · 9 fights
Style Matchup
provisional · 2 UFC fightsprovisional · 2 fights
STRIKING
P28
Striking Initiative
P5
P13
Volume
P9
P24
Striking Efficiency
P63
P16
Range Sniper
P32
P20
Kickboxing
P84
P92
Clinch Striking
P43
P14
Defensive Striking
P48
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P99
Wrestling
P23
P78
Pressure Wrestling
P42
P82
Top Control
P63
P78
Submission
P8
P83
Anti-Wrestling
P62
P47
Grappling Defense
P38
P100
Scrambler
P60
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P72
Power
P29
P65
Finisher
P56
P33
Damage Resistance
P43
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P91
Fast Starter
P6
P88
Pace
P10
P35
Late Fighter
P2
GLOBAL
P48
Versatility
P37
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
CruteErslan
2.85Landed / min2.50
2.33Absorbed / min5.17
49%Accuracy44%
46%Defense55%
1.02KD / 150.00
0.34KD abs / 150.50
Grappling / Wrestling
CruteErslan
5.43TD / 150.50
9.16TD att / 152.50
59%TD accuracy20%
60%TD defense65%
5:50Control / 153:30
2.37Sub att / 150.00
Targets
CruteErslan
Head56%|76%
Body22%|19%
Leg21%|5%
Position
CruteErslan
Distance48%|92%
Clinch21%|7%
Ground31%|1%
Ranking evolution Crute Erslan
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Jimmy Crute
Jimmy Crute pairs sharp distance management and stand-up defense with a strong ability to drag the fight to the mat, where his finishing threat is real. His ground control has been trending upward lately, and he carries finishing momentum plus tested experience against higher-level opposition. Owns a 5cm reach advantage and a 12-4 all-org record.
Ivan Erslan
Ivan Erslan comes in at 14-5 across all organizations, still searching for his first UFC win at 0-2. His defensive work has been improving recently, which matters most in the striking exchanges he'll be dragged into here.
Matchup Read
Crute brings the deeper résumé and the sharper matchup tools. His edge at range and the longer reach let him control the striking, and if he changes levels his top game and submission threat become the central danger, especially with his ground control on the rise. Erslan's recent defensive tightening is the counterweight he'll lean on both standing and while defending takedowns, but he needs to keep this off the mat.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Crute uses the reach to control range or Erslan closes distance and forces exchanges inside.
- Grappling: whether Crute's level changes land and turn into top control, and how Erslan's improved defense holds once there.
- On the mat: whether Erslan can scramble free before Crute's submission threat develops.
Key Uncertainty
With only two UFC fights on Erslan's record, there's limited high-level tape to gauge how his improving defense holds against a grappler of Crute's finishing threat.