← UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa
Dooho Choi vs Daniel Santos
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · 2026-05-16
56.8%
Model
39.8%
Market
2.42
Odds
+17.0
Edge (pp)
Style Matchup
limited sample · 5 UFC fightslimited · 5 fights
STRIKING
P72
Striking Initiative
P58
P61
Volume
P59
P94
Striking Efficiency
P13
P93
Range Sniper
P33
P74
Kickboxing
P12
P57
Clinch Striking
P35
P47
Defensive Striking
P17
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P68
Wrestling
P83
P63
Pressure Wrestling
P92
P59
Top Control
P92
P30
Submission
P16
P22
Anti-Wrestling
P79
P18
Grappling Defense
P76
P25
Scrambler
P75
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P98
Power
P82
P90
Finisher
P49
P17
Damage Resistance
P70
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P92
Fast Starter
P49
P52
Pace
P94
P35
Late Fighter
P27
GLOBAL
P77
Versatility
P36
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
ChoiSantos
5.01Landed / min4.76
4.70Absorbed / min5.03
55%Accuracy41%
55%Defense51%
1.02KD / 150.50
0.77KD abs / 150.25
Grappling / Wrestling
ChoiSantos
1.79TD / 153.01
3.32TD att / 157.52
54%TD accuracy40%
45%TD defense73%
2:54Control / 154:59
0.77Sub att / 150.00
Targets
ChoiSantos
Head76%|65%
Body14%|22%
Leg11%|13%
Position
ChoiSantos
Distance78%|73%
Clinch12%|8%
Ground10%|18%
Ranking evolution Choi Santos
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Dooho Choi
Choi carries a 16-4 overall mark with his sharpest wins coming against stiffer competition than his opponent has faced. His striking has been trending toward more dominant exchanges lately, and he owns a reach and height advantage of 8 cm each plus a slight edge in managing range and defending on the feet.
Daniel Santos
Santos rides a four-fight win streak and has gone 4/5 in the UFC with no recent dip in form. His striking volume has been climbing, and the matchup gives him slight edges both in getting the fight to the mat and in keeping it standing when he chooses.
Matchup Read
On the feet, Choi's length and range control meet Santos's rising output, so whoever dictates distance across three rounds shapes the striking. Santos has the slight means to change levels and get the fight down, where Choi's reach matters less. If Santos mixes in takedowns rather than trading at range, he pulls Choi out of his more comfortable long-range exchanges.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Choi uses his 8 cm reach to keep Santos at the end of his punches or Santos closes the gap.
- Grappling: how often Santos shoots and whether those level changes land against the fence.
- Volume: whether Santos's rising output starts stacking up as the three rounds wear on.
Key Uncertainty
Choi returns from 17.2 months out, a long enough absence to leave his current sharpness and timing genuinely hard to read coming into this one.