← UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa
Arnold Allen vs Melquizael Costa
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · 2026-05-16
61.0%
Model
59.4%
Market
1.62
Odds
+1.6
Edge (pp)
established · 14 UFC fightsestablished · 14 fights
Style Matchup
established · 9 UFC fightsestablished · 9 fights
STRIKING
P34
Striking Initiative
P93
P66
Volume
P80
P33
Striking Efficiency
P75
P56
Range Sniper
P59
P44
Kickboxing
P82
P7
Clinch Striking
P55
P93
Defensive Striking
P56
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P39
Wrestling
P69
P19
Pressure Wrestling
P56
P32
Top Control
P40
P51
Submission
P73
P24
Anti-Wrestling
P38
P50
Grappling Defense
P29
P5
Scrambler
P85
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P43
Power
P46
P14
Finisher
P44
P97
Damage Resistance
P50
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P31
Fast Starter
P78
P27
Pace
P84
P2
Late Fighter
P27
GLOBAL
P53
Versatility
P78
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
AllenCosta
3.47Landed / min4.38
3.04Absorbed / min2.97
42%Accuracy50%
60%Defense55%
0.23KD / 150.36
0.00KD abs / 150.18
Grappling / Wrestling
AllenCosta
0.86TD / 152.00
1.80TD att / 154.90
48%TD accuracy41%
72%TD defense59%
1:46Control / 152:57
0.31Sub att / 151.09
Targets
AllenCosta
Head72%|47%
Body20%|33%
Leg8%|21%
Position
AllenCosta
Distance90%|79%
Clinch5%|12%
Ground5%|10%
Ranking evolution Allen Costa
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Arnold Allen
Arnold Allen owns a 20-4 mark overall and an 11-3 UFC run, though he's gone 2/5 in his last five there. His most relevant tool for this matchup is takedown defense, giving him a route to keep exchanges standing. His last win came against the No. 11-ranked opponent.
Melquizael Costa
Melquizael Costa rides a six-fight win streak and has gone 5/5 in his last five UFC appearances, with 26-7 across all organizations. His recent form carries real finishing momentum and knockout power, his takedown defense has been trending upward, and he offers top control once the fight hits the mat. He's the taller man by 5 cm.
Matchup Read
Standing, Costa brings the recent finishing threat and power, while the ground tilts toward his top control if he can plant Allen there. That hands Allen a clear job: lean on his takedown defense to keep this upright and avoid the mat, where Costa's control plays. Over five rounds, Costa's edge in holding pace late raises the stakes of any extended grind, making Allen's ability to stuff entries and stay off his back the pivot point.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Allen's takedown defense keeps him upright or Costa drags it down and establishes top control.
- Early striking: how Costa's recent power shows up on the feet and whether Allen can trade without getting caught.
- Championship rounds: watch pace in rounds four and five, where Costa's late-fight engine carries more weight.