← UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett
Arnold Allen vs Jean Silva
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01-24
54.6%
Model
31.9%
Market
3.01
Odds
+22.7
Edge (pp)
established · 13 UFC fightsestablished · 13 fights
Style Matchup
STRIKING
P36
Striking Initiative
P69
P66
Volume
P70
P32
Striking Efficiency
P98
P53
Range Sniper
P100
P40
Kickboxing
P94
P4
Clinch Striking
P72
P96
Defensive Striking
P48
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P41
Wrestling
P35
P20
Pressure Wrestling
P0
P32
Top Control
P1
P52
Submission
P55
P23
Anti-Wrestling
P80
P54
Grappling Defense
P73
P7
Scrambler
P39
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P46
Power
P99
P14
Finisher
P96
P97
Damage Resistance
P43
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P27
Fast Starter
P52
P29
Pace
P2
P2
Late Fighter
P35
GLOBAL
P58
Versatility
P83
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
AllenSilva
3.45Landed / min4.45
2.88Absorbed / min4.67
42%Accuracy52%
62%Defense54%
0.25KD / 151.67
0.00KD abs / 150.33
Grappling / Wrestling
AllenSilva
0.93TD / 150.33
1.95TD att / 150.33
48%TD accuracy100%
75%TD defense78%
1:50Control / 150:15
0.34Sub att / 151.00
Targets
AllenSilva
Head73%|68%
Body20%|27%
Leg8%|6%
Position
AllenSilva
Distance90%|81%
Clinch4%|14%
Ground6%|6%
Ranking evolution Allen Silva
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Arnold Allen
Arnold Allen brings durability to the table, taking damage well in his recent outings without being stopped, and his striking output has been climbing lately. His UFC record sits at 11-2 with three wins in his last five, and once the fight hits the mat his top control is a factor. Fights southpaw.
Jean Silva
Jean Silva is the more dangerous closer here, carrying real finishing ability and building momentum with stoppages across his recent run, going 4 of 5 in the UFC. He also holds a slight advantage in getting the fight to the canvas. Works from an orthodox stance.
Matchup Read
Silva carries the early finishing threat, while Allen's chin and rising volume grow in value the longer this goes. Allen's recent durability is the counter to Silva's stopping power, and if he weathers the initial pressure he can lean on output over the distance. On the mat the picture splits: Silva has the slight nod getting it down, but Allen owns the top game once there, making scrambles and control battles a live subplot.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Silva can land clean enough to hurt Allen, or Allen absorbs it and settles into his volume.
- Grappling: if Silva shoots, watch who ends up on top once the exchange resolves.
- Late rounds: Allen's rising output against a Silva who has leaned on early finishes.
Key Uncertainty
Allen's roughly 18-month layoff clouds the read, since it's hard to know how sharp his timing and output will be after that long away from competition.