Early, Gaethje's pressure and output on the feet are where he can dictate, forcing Pimblett to trade or circle behind his 8 cm reach. As the fight wears on, Pimblett's route tilts toward the mat, where his level changes and top control become the deciding factor. The central question is whether Gaethje's forward volume keeps it standing, or whether Pimblett closes distance, changes levels, and grinds from top position.

O'Malley owns the early finishing danger, while Song's rising volume grows in value the longer exchanges continue. The central question is range: O'Malley's reach and height let him fight from distance, and if he keeps Song at the end of his strikes, the power threat stays live. Song's job is closing that gap and turning it into sustained pressure. O'Malley's takedown option adds a second layer if the striding-through phase gets dangerous.

Cortes Acosta's takedown defense meets Lewis's need to find one clean shot, and that framing sets the fight. If Cortes Acosta keeps it standing and works his volume, he tests Lewis over time, though every exchange carries Lewis's finishing threat. Should the fight hit the mat, Cortes Acosta's rising top control runs into Lewis's ability to scramble back up. Durability favors Cortes Acosta if this drags into deep water.

Silva carries the early finishing threat, while Allen's chin and rising volume grow in value the longer this goes. Allen's recent durability is the counter to Silva's stopping power, and if he weathers the initial pressure he can lean on output over the distance. On the mat the picture splits: Silva has the slight nod getting it down, but Allen owns the top game once there, making scrambles and control battles a live subplot.

Nurmagomedov's top control meets Figueiredo's knack for getting back up, and that exchange likely decides the fight. If Umar secures position and holds it, he stacks rounds; if Figueiredo keeps scrambling free, the fight resets standing, where Umar's volume and distance work carry a slight edge but Figueiredo's finishing danger stays live. His 8cm height advantage helps manage that range.

Gautier brings the cleaner recent résumé and the more complete matchup toolkit. The fight likely lives on the feet, where his pressure, range control and 8 cm of reach let him work behind a longer frame against the southpaw. If Pulyaev looks to change levels, Gautier's takedown defense keeps it standing, and his own level changes give him the option to grind on top. His durability lets him wade into exchanges.

Krylov brings the more tested resume and the proven mat game, but the sharper matchup-specific momentum sits with Bukauskas. This likely turns on whether Krylov can close distance and drag it down, where his top control and ground finishing become the central danger. If Bukauskas keeps it standing, his rising volume and improving defense against Krylov's orthodox looks steer the exchanges. Bukauskas's switch stance complicates Krylov's entries.

Standing, the fight favors Johnson: the longer frame, switch-stance looks and recent power give him the tools to win exchanges at range. On the mat the picture flips, since Perez's ability to change levels and grind from top position is where he can neutralize that striking. Whether Johnson keeps this vertical decides how much his reach and gas tank matter, and Perez's takedowns are the lever that takes it away.

Hokit's forward pressure and volume run straight into Freeman's length and stand-up defense, and how that battle for range resolves shapes everything. If Freeman keeps him at the end of his reach and manages the southpaw-orthodox angles, he blunts the output. If Hokit closes the gap and drags it to the mat, his ground finishing becomes the central danger. Freeman's chin gives him some margin under that pressure.

Miller's submission threat on the ground meets a question mark, since no counter to it is established for Fugitt here. If Miller can drag exchanges to the mat, his finishing game becomes the central danger. Standing, the orthodox-southpaw pairing reshuffles the usual angles for both. Miller's broader body of tested fights and clean recent durability give him more to lean on, though the ground is where his sharpest tool lives.