← UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett
Modestas Bukauskas vs Nikita Krylov
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01-24
57.1%
Model
63.0%
Market
1.53
Odds
-5.8
Edge (pp)
established · 11 UFC fightsestablished · 11 fights
Style Matchup
established · 20 UFC fightsestablished · 20 fights
STRIKING
P18
Striking Initiative
P77
P45
Volume
P46
P62
Striking Efficiency
P61
P60
Range Sniper
P43
P76
Kickboxing
P28
P32
Clinch Striking
P91
P32
Defensive Striking
P9
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P28
Wrestling
P74
P29
Pressure Wrestling
P91
P42
Top Control
P78
P48
Submission
P95
P30
Anti-Wrestling
P54
P87
Grappling Defense
P20
P9
Scrambler
P97
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P50
Power
P58
P72
Finisher
P96
P14
Damage Resistance
P25
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P8
Fast Starter
P82
P6
Pace
P93
P51
Late Fighter
P35
GLOBAL
P44
Versatility
P57
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
BukauskasKrylov
3.32Landed / min4.31
3.93Absorbed / min2.58
44%Accuracy55%
51%Defense45%
0.15KD / 150.57
0.59KD abs / 150.34
Grappling / Wrestling
BukauskasKrylov
0.30TD / 152.17
0.45TD att / 155.71
67%TD accuracy38%
80%TD defense53%
1:40Control / 155:48
0.15Sub att / 151.37
Targets
BukauskasKrylov
Head72%|64%
Body17%|23%
Leg11%|13%
Position
BukauskasKrylov
Distance85%|53%
Clinch9%|26%
Ground6%|22%
Ranking evolution Bukauskas Krylov
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Modestas Bukauskas
Krylov's most consistent threats live on the mat: strong top control once he lands there and a genuine finishing threat from top position. His resume carries quality, with a recent win over the No. 11-ranked opponent, and a broad 30-11 mark across all organizations.
Nikita Krylov
Bukauskas rides a 4-fight win streak with real finishing momentum over his recent outings. His striking output has been trending upward, his defense has been tightening, and his form has stayed stable without recent decline. He's also shown the ability to absorb damage lately.
Matchup Read
Krylov brings the more tested resume and the proven mat game, but the sharper matchup-specific momentum sits with Bukauskas. This likely turns on whether Krylov can close distance and drag it down, where his top control and ground finishing become the central danger. If Bukauskas keeps it standing, his rising volume and improving defense against Krylov's orthodox looks steer the exchanges. Bukauskas's switch stance complicates Krylov's entries.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Krylov can complete entries and hold top position, or Bukauskas works back to his feet.
- Striking: how much volume Bukauskas puts out at range and whether his tighter defense holds up under Krylov's pressure.
- Late rounds: whether Bukauskas's recent durability and finishing momentum carry through as the fight wears on.