← UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett
Paddy Pimblett vs Justin Gaethje
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01-24
68.7%
Model
66.4%
Market
1.45
Odds
+2.4
Edge (pp)
limited sample · 7 UFC fightslimited · 7 fights
Style Matchup
established · 14 UFC fightsestablished · 14 fights
STRIKING
P89
Striking Initiative
P79
P72
Volume
P76
P89
Striking Efficiency
P99
P66
Range Sniper
P99
P70
Kickboxing
P98
P25
Clinch Striking
P77
P8
Defensive Striking
P33
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P31
Wrestling
P3
P64
Pressure Wrestling
P19
P65
Top Control
P44
P96
Submission
P7
P21
Anti-Wrestling
P58
P6
Grappling Defense
P59
P75
Scrambler
P0
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P46
Power
P90
P66
Finisher
P78
P77
Damage Resistance
P63
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P79
Fast Starter
P72
P89
Pace
P11
P18
Late Fighter
P75
GLOBAL
P44
Versatility
P56
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
PimblettGaethje
5.19Landed / min6.59
3.14Absorbed / min7.18
54%Accuracy59%
42%Defense52%
0.48KD / 150.67
0.00KD abs / 150.29
Grappling / Wrestling
PimblettGaethje
0.96TD / 150.10
3.36TD att / 150.67
29%TD accuracy14%
50%TD defense68%
4:04Control / 150:33
1.68Sub att / 150.00
Targets
PimblettGaethje
Head66%|62%
Body12%|11%
Leg22%|27%
Position
PimblettGaethje
Distance69%|86%
Clinch6%|12%
Ground25%|2%
Ranking evolution Pimblett Gaethje
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Paddy Pimblett
Paddy Pimblett comes in on a 9-fight win streak and a perfect 7-0 UFC run, 5 of 5 in his last five, with his most recent win over the No. 13-ranked opponent. His grappling drives the profile: strong level changes to put it on the mat and heavy top control once there. His striking volume has been climbing, and recent fights have brought finishing momentum and knockout power. An 8 cm reach advantage adds range.
Justin Gaethje
Justin Gaethje carries a 26-5 record across all organizations and a 9-5 UFC mark, 3 of his last 5, with his last loss coming to the No. 3-ranked opponent. His main edge in this matchup is striking volume and the forward pressure he applies on the feet.
Matchup Read
Early, Gaethje's pressure and output on the feet are where he can dictate, forcing Pimblett to trade or circle behind his 8 cm reach. As the fight wears on, Pimblett's route tilts toward the mat, where his level changes and top control become the deciding factor. The central question is whether Gaethje's forward volume keeps it standing, or whether Pimblett closes distance, changes levels, and grinds from top position.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Gaethje's forward pressure and output keep Pimblett trading rather than changing levels.
- Grappling: how often Pimblett gets clean entries to the mat and whether he can hold top position once there.
- Range: whether Pimblett uses the reach to work from distance or Gaethje closes it to land volume inside.