← UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett
Umar Nurmagomedov vs Deiveson Figueiredo
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01-24
86.9%
Model
90.7%
Market
1.06
Odds
-3.8
Edge (pp)
established · 8 UFC fightsestablished · 8 fights
Style Matchup
established · 19 UFC fightsestablished · 19 fights
STRIKING
P54
Striking Initiative
P3
P27
Volume
P3
P64
Striking Efficiency
P65
P22
Range Sniper
P68
P35
Kickboxing
P53
P27
Clinch Striking
P39
P62
Defensive Striking
P14
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P97
Wrestling
P63
P97
Pressure Wrestling
P52
P97
Top Control
P46
P66
Submission
P81
P53
Anti-Wrestling
P48
P71
Grappling Defense
P35
P32
Scrambler
P67
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P11
Power
P82
P14
Finisher
P56
P46
Damage Resistance
P92
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P90
Fast Starter
P84
P95
Pace
P12
P80
Late Fighter
P76
GLOBAL
P97
Versatility
P61
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
NurmagomedovFigueiredo
4.08Landed / min2.45
2.04Absorbed / min3.35
57%Accuracy54%
61%Defense50%
0.13KD / 150.78
0.27KD abs / 150.07
Grappling / Wrestling
NurmagomedovFigueiredo
4.30TD / 151.76
9.01TD att / 155.09
48%TD accuracy35%
79%TD defense58%
5:57Control / 152:45
0.27Sub att / 151.43
Targets
NurmagomedovFigueiredo
Head69%|59%
Body19%|28%
Leg11%|13%
Position
NurmagomedovFigueiredo
Distance66%|71%
Clinch6%|9%
Ground28%|20%
Ranking evolution Nurmagomedov Figueiredo
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Umar Nurmagomedov
Umar Nurmagomedov brings a strong top game, controlling opponents once the fight hits the mat, backed by durability that has held up in recent bouts. His striking adds slightly higher output and cleaner distance work, and he's built a 19-1 record with a win over the No. 6-ranked opponent.
Deiveson Figueiredo
Deiveson Figueiredo's calling card here is his ability to escape from underneath and scramble back to his feet, a real problem for anyone trying to pin him. He also carries slightly more finishing threat when the fight opens up, with a 25-5 record over a long career.
Matchup Read
Nurmagomedov's top control meets Figueiredo's knack for getting back up, and that exchange likely decides the fight. If Umar secures position and holds it, he stacks rounds; if Figueiredo keeps scrambling free, the fight resets standing, where Umar's volume and distance work carry a slight edge but Figueiredo's finishing danger stays live. His 8cm height advantage helps manage that range.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Umar can pin Figueiredo down or whether Deiveson keeps scrambling back to his feet.
- Striking: who dictates range early, with Umar's height and output against Figueiredo's power.
- Late rounds: whether the control time piles up or the fight stays open enough for a finish.