← UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett
Waldo Cortes Acosta vs Derrick Lewis
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01-24
81.7%
Model
72.0%
Market
1.34
Odds
+9.7
Edge (pp)
Style Matchup
established · 30 UFC fightsestablished · 30 fights
STRIKING
P96
Striking Initiative
P6
P94
Volume
P15
P88
Striking Efficiency
P39
P85
Range Sniper
P57
P84
Kickboxing
P4
P3
Clinch Striking
P83
P65
Defensive Striking
P5
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P23
Wrestling
P11
P8
Pressure Wrestling
P15
P38
Top Control
P12
P21
Submission
P5
P42
Anti-Wrestling
P11
P78
Grappling Defense
P6
P6
Scrambler
P82
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P76
Power
P93
P33
Finisher
P96
P94
Damage Resistance
P31
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P64
Fast Starter
P39
P54
Pace
P8
P82
Late Fighter
P51
GLOBAL
P70
Versatility
P0
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
AcostaLewis
5.37Landed / min2.51
3.52Absorbed / min2.49
48%Accuracy51%
56%Defense41%
0.61KD / 150.62
0.00KD abs / 150.23
Grappling / Wrestling
AcostaLewis
0.37TD / 150.56
0.73TD att / 152.14
50%TD accuracy26%
73%TD defense53%
1:38Control / 151:44
0.12Sub att / 150.00
Targets
AcostaLewis
Head71%|79%
Body15%|17%
Leg13%|4%
Position
AcostaLewis
Distance89%|39%
Clinch3%|18%
Ground8%|43%
Ranking evolution Acosta Lewis
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Waldo Cortes Acosta
Cortes Acosta works behind steady output and forward pressure on the feet, and his chin has held up under fire. He defends the takedown well enough to keep exchanges standing, and his top control has been trending upward lately. He carries finishing momentum into this one, riding a two-fight run with a UFC mark of 9-2.
Derrick Lewis
Lewis brings fight-ending power and a real threat to close before the scorecards. When he does end up on his back, he's shown he can work his way out and get back to his feet. A veteran presence at 20-10 in the UFC, he enters on a two-fight run.
Matchup Read
Cortes Acosta's takedown defense meets Lewis's need to find one clean shot, and that framing sets the fight. If Cortes Acosta keeps it standing and works his volume, he tests Lewis over time, though every exchange carries Lewis's finishing threat. Should the fight hit the mat, Cortes Acosta's rising top control runs into Lewis's ability to scramble back up. Durability favors Cortes Acosta if this drags into deep water.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Cortes Acosta can pile up volume without walking into one of Lewis's power shots.
- Grappling: if it goes down, whether Cortes Acosta holds top position or Lewis works back to his feet.
- Late rounds: whether Cortes Acosta's chin and pace hold up as the fight extends past the opening exchanges.