← UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker
Waldo Cortes Acosta vs Shamil Gaziev
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11-22
74.3%
Model
56.2%
Market
1.72
Odds
+18.1
Edge (pp)
Style Matchup
provisional · 4 UFC fightsprovisional · 4 fights
STRIKING
P95
Striking Initiative
P6
P94
Volume
P3
P88
Striking Efficiency
P32
P78
Range Sniper
P20
P84
Kickboxing
P28
P4
Clinch Striking
P83
P64
Defensive Striking
P3
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P24
Wrestling
P35
P8
Pressure Wrestling
P52
P38
Top Control
P98
P21
Submission
P25
P41
Anti-Wrestling
P47
P77
Grappling Defense
P79
P7
Scrambler
P33
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P57
Power
P83
P27
Finisher
P83
P93
Damage Resistance
P55
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P47
Fast Starter
P70
P54
Pace
P39
P80
Late Fighter
P2
GLOBAL
P69
Versatility
P31
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
AcostaGaziev
5.34Landed / min2.63
3.51Absorbed / min4.10
48%Accuracy48%
56%Defense45%
0.37KD / 150.34
0.00KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
AcostaGaziev
0.37TD / 151.02
0.74TD att / 153.40
50%TD accuracy30%
73%TD defense83%
1:38Control / 156:24
0.12Sub att / 150.00
Targets
AcostaGaziev
Head71%|71%
Body16%|28%
Leg13%|2%
Position
AcostaGaziev
Distance89%|66%
Clinch3%|22%
Ground8%|12%
Ranking evolution Acosta Gaziev
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Waldo Cortes Acosta
Waldo Cortes Acosta brings the deeper gas tank, holding his pace and output late while the fight stretches on. His striking leans on steady volume and forward pressure, backed by solid distance management and stand-up defense. Riding a win over the No. 16-ranked opponent and quick off a 0.7-month turnaround.
Shamil Gaziev
Shamil Gaziev's strengths point to the mat and to early exits. He controls well once on top and carries real finishing power to end things before the scorecards, and he owns a slight edge in getting the fight down. He's 3-1 in the UFC, coming off 9.7 months out.
Matchup Read
Gaziev carries the early finishing danger and the tools to drag it to the mat and control from top, where his threat is highest. Cortes Acosta's answer is to keep it standing behind his volume and defense, and to bank on the deeper tank if the fight runs long. The read hinges on whether Gaziev lands takedowns and finishes early, or whether Cortes Acosta stretches him into later rounds where his cardio grows in value.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Gaziev can complete entries and pin Cortes Acosta down, or gets shrugged off back to the feet.
- Early rounds: how much of Gaziev's finishing power shows before the fight settles into a pace.
- Late rounds: whether Cortes Acosta's output and cardio hold up if this reaches the back half.