← UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez
Melquizael Costa vs Dan Ige
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02-21
69.2%
Model
66.0%
Market
1.46
Odds
+3.2
Edge (pp)
established · 8 UFC fightsestablished · 8 fights
Style Matchup
established · 20 UFC fightsestablished · 20 fights
STRIKING
P93
Striking Initiative
P38
P79
Volume
P56
P76
Striking Efficiency
P56
P54
Range Sniper
P67
P84
Kickboxing
P61
P47
Clinch Striking
P25
P58
Defensive Striking
P62
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P67
Wrestling
P18
P56
Pressure Wrestling
P32
P41
Top Control
P25
P76
Submission
P46
P39
Anti-Wrestling
P64
P28
Grappling Defense
P35
P86
Scrambler
P62
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P31
Power
P49
P44
Finisher
P35
P48
Damage Resistance
P97
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P68
Fast Starter
P38
P84
Pace
P28
P27
Late Fighter
P26
GLOBAL
P77
Versatility
P31
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
CostaIge
4.42Landed / min3.62
3.06Absorbed / min3.66
50%Accuracy45%
55%Defense56%
0.19KD / 150.41
0.19KD abs / 150.12
Grappling / Wrestling
CostaIge
1.93TD / 150.70
5.02TD att / 153.29
38%TD accuracy21%
58%TD defense58%
3:03Control / 151:42
1.16Sub att / 150.06
Targets
CostaIge
Head47%|65%
Body32%|22%
Leg21%|12%
Position
CostaIge
Distance79%|78%
Clinch11%|8%
Ground10%|14%
Ranking evolution Costa Ige
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Melquizael Costa
Costa comes in on a five-fight win streak and 5/5 in his last five UFC appearances, with a 25-7 overall mark. His grappling leads the way: he can get the fight down, work from top position, and his submission threat has been the standout element of his recent run. His striking output has been climbing lately, and he fights as a southpaw with an 8 cm height advantage.
Dan Ige
Ige, 11-9 in the UFC and 18-10 overall, has taken 2 of his last 5 UFC fights. His most recent win came over the No. 26-ranked opponent, while his last loss was to the No. 13-ranked opponent. He has been out for 7.1 months and fights from an orthodox stance.
Matchup Read
The ground is where this tilts toward Costa: his takedown entries, top control, and submission threat all become relevant if he can drag Ige out of open space. Standing, the southpaw-orthodox mismatch and the 8 cm height gap shape the exchanges, and Costa's rising volume keeps him in those rounds. Ige's path runs through staying upright and keeping the fight in the striking phase, denying the level changes.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Costa can convert level changes into top position or whether Ige stays upright and resets.
- Early striking: how the open-stance angles and Costa's height play out at range before anyone commits to a takedown.
- Submission scrambles: watch for Costa hunting the finish once the fight hits the mat.