← UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape
Melquizael Costa vs Morgan Charriere
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape · 2025-12-13
65.4%
Model
49.9%
Market
1.93
Odds
+15.5
Edge (pp)
Style Matchup
STRIKING
P92
Striking Initiative
P51
P79
Volume
P49
P78
Striking Efficiency
P83
P37
Range Sniper
P92
P86
Kickboxing
P87
P50
Clinch Striking
P30
P57
Defensive Striking
P43
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P68
Wrestling
P69
P53
Pressure Wrestling
P39
P40
Top Control
P58
P77
Submission
P32
P37
Anti-Wrestling
P95
P27
Grappling Defense
P87
P86
Scrambler
P77
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P7
Power
P89
P38
Finisher
P71
P48
Damage Resistance
P63
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P55
Fast Starter
P82
P85
Pace
P48
P14
Late Fighter
P11
GLOBAL
P78
Versatility
P81
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
CostaCharriere
4.44Landed / min4.08
3.09Absorbed / min4.54
50%Accuracy50%
55%Defense54%
0.00KD / 150.90
0.20KD abs / 150.30
Grappling / Wrestling
CostaCharriere
1.96TD / 152.11
5.10TD att / 154.52
38%TD accuracy47%
58%TD defense83%
3:05Control / 153:08
1.18Sub att / 150.30
Targets
CostaCharriere
Head47%|61%
Body32%|24%
Leg21%|15%
Position
CostaCharriere
Distance79%|89%
Clinch11%|6%
Ground10%|5%
Ranking evolution Costa Charriere
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Melquizael Costa
Melquizael Costa rides a four-fight win streak and is 4/5 in his last five UFC outings. His grappling brings a live submission threat, and he's shown quality in his tested results. On the feet he manages distance well and holds a sturdy chin, aided by a 5 cm reach advantage.
Morgan Charriere
Morgan Charriere carries recent knockout power and a habit of scrambling back to his feet when put on his back. He also does solid work stuffing takedowns to keep exchanges standing, where his finishing ability lives.
Matchup Read
Standing favors Charriere's power and his push to keep it upright, while the ground brings Costa's submission threat into play. Costa's takedown attempts meet Charriere's resistance and his ability to get back up, so control may not last long. Costa's distance management and reach could help neutralize the power on the feet, but every reset standing plays into Charriere's finishing. The crossed stances shift the angles both ways.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Costa can hold Charriere down long enough to hunt a submission, or Charriere scrambles up before anything develops.
- Early striking: whether Costa uses his reach to keep range, or Charriere closes and lands the heavier shots.
- Takedown battle: how often Charriere stuffs entries and forces the fight back to the feet.