← UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa
Luis Gurule vs Daniel Barez
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · 2026-05-16
62.7%
Model
51.7%
Market
1.86
Odds
+11.0
Edge (pp)
provisional · 3 UFC fightsprovisional · 3 fights
Style Matchup
STRIKING
P20
Striking Initiative
P25
P60
Volume
P42
P4
Striking Efficiency
P93
P14
Range Sniper
P100
P24
Kickboxing
P98
P21
Clinch Striking
P14
P77
Defensive Striking
P26
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P30
Wrestling
P21
P46
Pressure Wrestling
P13
P43
Top Control
P4
P9
Submission
P36
P39
Anti-Wrestling
P19
P69
Grappling Defense
P23
P29
Scrambler
P29
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P22
Power
P82
P25
Finisher
P44
P36
Damage Resistance
P68
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P35
Fast Starter
P68
P41
Pace
P2
P87
Late Fighter
P6
GLOBAL
P15
Versatility
P29
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
GuruleBarez
3.44Landed / min3.74
4.93Absorbed / min6.35
34%Accuracy49%
60%Defense49%
0.00KD / 150.95
0.41KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
GuruleBarez
0.81TD / 150.48
4.88TD att / 152.38
17%TD accuracy20%
78%TD defense57%
1:37Control / 150:47
0.00Sub att / 150.00
Targets
GuruleBarez
Head61%|53%
Body16%|28%
Leg23%|19%
Position
GuruleBarez
Distance91%|94%
Clinch6%|1%
Ground3%|5%
Ranking evolution Gurule Barez
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Luis Gurule
Luis Gurule's game is built on takedowns and pace. He changes levels well and carries a deep gas tank that holds up late over three rounds. He defends well enough on the feet to manage range, stuffs takedowns at a modest rate, and takes a shot reasonably well. Across all organizations he sits at 10-3, though 0-3 inside the UFC.
Daniel Barez
Daniel Barez brings a 17-7 record across all organizations and a slight edge in finishing ability, carrying more end-the-fight threat before the scorecards. He owns a 5 cm reach advantage that gives him room to work at range. He's been out for 14 months since his last fight.
Matchup Read
Gurule's push to get the fight down meets Barez's finishing threat, and that collision shapes the read. If Gurule changes levels and leans on his conditioning, he can grind through three rounds and keep Barez from the clean looks he needs. Kept standing, Barez has the reach to work behind and the pop to end it early. Whether Gurule's level changes land decides which fight this becomes.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Gurule's level changes land early or Barez keeps it standing and uses his reach.
- Late rounds: if the fight stays competitive into the third, Gurule's gas tank becomes the deciding factor.
- Early striking: watch whether Barez catches Gurule with something heavy before the grappling takes over.
Key Uncertainty
Barez returns from 14 months out, a longer-than-usual layoff that makes his current sharpness and timing harder to read coming into this one.