← UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez
Alden Coria vs Luis Gurule
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02-21
Alden CoriaLow Data
vs Luis Gurule
72.4%
Model
71.7%
Market
1.34
Odds
+0.7
Edge (pp)
provisional · 1 UFC fightsprovisional · 1 fights
Style Matchup
provisional · 2 UFC fightsprovisional · 2 fights
STRIKING
P78
Striking Initiative
P24
P60
Volume
P58
P30
Striking Efficiency
P4
P7
Range Sniper
P11
P23
Kickboxing
P21
P28
Clinch Striking
P19
P72
Defensive Striking
P80
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P57
Wrestling
P32
P55
Pressure Wrestling
P48
P82
Top Control
P55
P35
Submission
P10
P69
Anti-Wrestling
P41
P50
Grappling Defense
P63
P80
Scrambler
P33
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P20
Power
P25
P59
Finisher
P28
P40
Damage Resistance
P29
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P17
Fast Starter
P56
P89
Pace
P52
P19
Late Fighter
P73
GLOBAL
P41
Versatility
P20
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
CoriaGurule
3.89Landed / min3.52
1.11Absorbed / min4.70
44%Accuracy35%
79%Defense63%
0.00KD / 150.00
0.00KD abs / 150.68
Grappling / Wrestling
CoriaGurule
2.78TD / 150.68
2.78TD att / 156.16
100%TD accuracy11%
75%TD defense80%
4:35Control / 151:48
0.00Sub att / 150.00
Targets
CoriaGurule
Head81%|60%
Body2%|16%
Leg17%|25%
Position
CoriaGurule
Distance69%|91%
Clinch0%|4%
Ground31%|5%
Ranking evolution Coria Gurule
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Alden Coria
Alden Coria comes in on a four-fight run across all organizations, 11-3 overall and fresh off a winning UFC debut. He owns the sharper stand-up, managing range well and defending on the feet, and he's shown recent knockout power. His chin has held up lately, and he's able to scramble up when put on his back.
Luis Gurule
Luis Gurule is 10-2 across all organizations but 0-2 in the UFC. His most notable trait in this matchup is his ability to sustain output late, holding a strong pace deeper into the fight where the exchanges start to add up.
Matchup Read
The early and middle rounds favor Coria's striking, where his 8 cm reach edge helps him work at range and his recent power makes exchanges dangerous for Gurule. If Gurule looks to grapple, Coria's ability to return to his feet limits time spent on bottom. Gurule's path runs through the later stages, where his capacity to keep pushing pace becomes his most concrete route back into it.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Coria uses his reach to keep Gurule at the end of his punches and land the harder shots.
- Grappling: if Gurule gets Coria down, how quickly Coria scrambles back up rather than staying on bottom.
- Late rounds: whether Gurule can push the pace up and drag Coria into deeper water as the fight wears on.
Key Uncertainty
With only one UFC fight for Coria and two for Gurule, there's a thin top-level body of work to judge either man against, which limits how firmly this read can be drawn.