← UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa
Nikolay Veretennikov vs Khaos Williams
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · 2026-05-16
52.2%
Model
47.0%
Market
2.05
Odds
+5.2
Edge (pp)
Style Matchup
established · 10 UFC fightsestablished · 10 fights
STRIKING
P6
Striking Initiative
P81
P13
Volume
P94
P91
Striking Efficiency
P23
P59
Range Sniper
P69
P90
Kickboxing
P51
P95
Clinch Striking
P34
P9
Defensive Striking
P1
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P17
Wrestling
P1
P14
Pressure Wrestling
P7
P3
Top Control
P30
P27
Submission
P8
P9
Anti-Wrestling
P27
P22
Grappling Defense
P21
P57
Scrambler
P7
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P29
Power
P83
P77
Finisher
P38
P57
Damage Resistance
P95
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P26
Fast Starter
P73
P1
Pace
P44
P64
Late Fighter
P63
GLOBAL
P17
Versatility
P0
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
VeretennikovWilliams
2.49Landed / min4.94
3.24Absorbed / min5.39
54%Accuracy39%
41%Defense41%
0.00KD / 150.76
0.00KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
VeretennikovWilliams
0.54TD / 150.00
2.41TD att / 150.30
22%TD accuracy0%
67%TD defense52%
1:01Control / 151:44
0.54Sub att / 150.00
Targets
VeretennikovWilliams
Head50%|48%
Body42%|20%
Leg9%|32%
Position
VeretennikovWilliams
Distance71%|88%
Clinch24%|8%
Ground6%|4%
Ranking evolution Veretennikov Williams
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Nikolay Veretennikov
Nikolay Veretennikov's most consistent strength in this matchup is his ability to drag the fight to the mat, and his ground control has been trending upward recently along with his striking output. He carries recent finishing momentum and knockout power, and his form has held steady without recent decline. Sits at 2-3 in the UFC, 14-7 overall.
Khaos Williams
Khaos Williams has tested himself against stronger competition, with his last win coming over the No. 39-ranked opponent. He holds an 8 cm reach advantage that lets him work from a longer range. At 6-4 in the UFC, he's been out for over 11 months.
Matchup Read
Williams brings the better recent résumé against ranked opposition, but the matchup-specific tools tilt toward Veretennikov's grappling. The fight splits on where it's fought: if Williams uses his 8 cm reach to keep Veretennikov at the end of his strikes, he dictates the exchanges. If Veretennikov closes distance and changes levels, his top control and finishing momentum become the story over three rounds.
What to Watch
- Distance management: whether Williams keeps Veretennikov outside his reach or gets backed toward the fence.
- Grappling: whether Veretennikov converts level changes into sustained top control rather than brief takedowns.
- Late rounds: who still owns the pace and finishing threat deep into the third.