← UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan
Kai Kamaka III vs Andre Fili
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan · 2026-10-10
63.3%
Model
41.6%
Market
2.32
Odds
+21.8
Edge (pp)
provisional · 2 UFC fightsprovisional · 2 fights
Style Matchup
established · 26 UFC fightsestablished · 26 fights
STRIKING
P83
Striking Initiative
P36
P80
Volume
P71
P100
Striking Efficiency
P16
P96
Range Sniper
P47
P100
Kickboxing
P33
P80
Clinch Striking
P7
P50
Defensive Striking
P17
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P19
Wrestling
P80
P10
Pressure Wrestling
P76
P7
Top Control
P49
P5
Submission
P27
P36
Anti-Wrestling
P96
P50
Grappling Defense
P77
P32
Scrambler
P70
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P3
Power
P43
P5
Finisher
P9
P21
Damage Resistance
P43
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P21
Fast Starter
P12
P5
Pace
P65
P58
Late Fighter
P48
GLOBAL
P40
Versatility
P24
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
IIIFili
7.09Landed / min3.84
8.25Absorbed / min4.59
64%Accuracy38%
54%Defense49%
0.00KD / 150.32
1.66KD abs / 150.37
Grappling / Wrestling
IIIFili
0.00TD / 152.23
0.83TD att / 154.88
0%TD accuracy46%
67%TD defense69%
0:19Control / 152:16
0.00Sub att / 150.21
Targets
IIIFili
Head41%|73%
Body40%|15%
Leg19%|12%
Position
IIIFili
Distance83%|88%
Clinch17%|6%
Ground0%|7%
Ranking evolution III Fili
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Kai Kamaka III
Kamaka's calling card is output and forward pressure on the feet, the kind of busy, volume-forward approach that keeps opponents working. His defensive sharpness has also been trending upward recently. He comes in off a 3-month turnaround with an 18-8 mark across all organizations.
Andre Fili
Fili brings a 13-cm reach advantage, cleaner distance management and stand-up defense, and a durable chin that lets him eat shots and stay in exchanges. On the mat he owns the stronger route to put the fight down and the ability to work back up when reversed, carrying a deep 25-14 record.
Matchup Read
Kamaka's early pressure and volume push into Fili's length and tidier defense, so the opening question is whether he can close that 13-cm gap before eating return fire. As the fight stretches on, Fili's edges compound: his chin absorbs the volume, his takedowns can interrupt the pace, and his ability to climb back to the feet denies Kamaka sustained top work. Kamaka likely needs to crowd him and force a brawl inside.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Kamaka can get inside Fili's reach and land in volume, or gets kept at the end of punches.
- Grappling: if Fili changes levels, watch how quickly he scores the takedown and how long he holds position before Kamaka resets.
- Late rounds: whether Kamaka's pace still bites over three rounds or Fili's durability turns it into a distance fight.
Key Uncertainty
With only two UFC appearances on Kamaka's record, there's limited high-level tape to gauge how his pressure and output hold up against an experienced, rangier opponent like Fili.