← UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
Luke Riley vs Kai Kamaka III
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07-11
Luke RileyLow Data
60.7%
Model
73.9%
Market
1.30
Odds
-13.2
Edge (pp)
provisional · 2 UFC fightsprovisional · 2 fights
Style Matchup
provisional · 1 UFC fightsprovisional · 1 fights
STRIKING
P96
Striking Initiative
P87
P92
Volume
P79
P99
Striking Efficiency
P100
P100
Range Sniper
P94
P90
Kickboxing
P100
P60
Clinch Striking
P84
P94
Defensive Striking
P72
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P22
Wrestling
P26
P0
Pressure Wrestling
P9
P0
Top Control
P7
P0
Submission
P5
P4
Anti-Wrestling
P35
P4
Grappling Defense
P45
P32
Scrambler
P34
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P93
Power
P3
P56
Finisher
P9
P49
Damage Resistance
P36
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P33
Fast Starter
—
P9
Pace
P5
P67
Late Fighter
P73
GLOBAL
P21
Versatility
P43
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
RileyIII
5.56Landed / min7.00
3.32Absorbed / min7.07
57%Accuracy66%
65%Defense59%
0.73KD / 150.00
0.00KD abs / 151.00
Grappling / Wrestling
RileyIII
0.00TD / 150.00
0.00TD att / 151.00
—TD accuracy0%
38%TD defense67%
0:11Control / 150:23
0.00Sub att / 150.00
Targets
RileyIII
Head67%|42%
Body28%|45%
Leg5%|13%
Position
RileyIII
Distance82%|79%
Clinch10%|21%
Ground8%|0%
Ranking evolution Riley III
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Luke Riley
Luke Riley arrives unbeaten at 13-0, 2-0 in the UFC, riding a 13-fight win streak. He manages range well and keeps his stand-up defense tight, backed by a sturdy chin. His most consistent trait is the ability to close the show before the judges, and his recent run has been built on finishes.
Kai Kamaka III
Kai Kamaka III brings an 18-7 overall record and a debut UFC win, with a two-fight streak. He leans on volume and forward pressure on the feet, and has shown he can defend takedowns to keep exchanges standing. His résumé carries meaningful exposure against a higher level of opposition.
Matchup Read
Early, Riley's finishing threat and durability set the terms: he can hurt Kamaka and stay standing himself if pressed. The longer it runs, the more Kamaka's output and pressure matter, and his takedown defense keeps the fight in his preferred range. Riley's distance control is the hinge, if he dictates spacing he blunts the volume; if Kamaka closes it, he can pile up work across three rounds.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Riley lands the cleaner, heavier shots or Kamaka smothers him with pace and forward pressure.
- Range battle: Riley using his height and reach to keep Kamaka at the end of his punches versus Kamaka pressing inside.
- Late rounds: if the fight survives to the third, watch whether Kamaka's volume starts to tell on the cards.
Key Uncertainty
With Riley holding just two UFC fights and Kamaka only one, there's limited top-level tape on either man, so how these tools hold up against this caliber of opponent remains partly untested.