AIRiley brings the longer unbeaten résumé, but Grad owns the harder-hitting recent form, with finishing pace a…

61.9%

Model

32.6%

Market

2.96

Odds

+29.3

Edge (pp)

61.9%38.1%

KO/TKO

Wrestling Pressure · Wrestling

provisional · 2 UFC fightsprovisional · 2 fights

Style Matchup

No UFC data yet

UFC debut · style profile after first fight

STRIKING

P16

Striking Initiative

Volume

P32

Striking Efficiency

P11

Range Sniper

Kickboxing

P77

Clinch Striking

P30

Defensive Striking

GRAPPLING / WRESTLING

P81

Wrestling

P85

Pressure Wrestling

P81

Top Control

P23

Submission

P15

Anti-Wrestling

P39

Grappling Defense

P36

Scrambler

DAMAGE / FINISHING

P31

Power

P67

Finisher

P48

Damage Resistance

FIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill

P42

Fast Starter

P83

Pace

Late Fighter

GLOBAL

P40

Versatility

Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.

Striking

GradRiley

3.16Landed / min—

2.13Absorbed / min—

59%Accuracy—

51%Defense—

0.00KD / 15—

0.00KD abs / 15—

Grappling / Wrestling

GradRiley

3.69TD / 15—

11.08TD att / 15—

33%TD accuracy—

75%TD defense—

5:49Control / 15—

0.00Sub att / 15—

Targets

Position

Ranking evolution Grad Riley

AI Matchup Analysis

Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.

Bogdan Grad

Bogdan Grad carries a 15-3 mark across all organizations and sits 1-1 in the UFC. His recent work stands out for finishing pace, with knockout power showing up in those outings. Last time out he beat modest regional opposition, and he's coming off 5.1 months out.

Luke Riley

Luke Riley enters on an 11-fight unbeaten run, 11-0 across all organizations, and makes his UFC walk here. His most recent win came against modest regional opposition, so the momentum is clear even if it hasn't yet been tested at this level.

Matchup Read

Riley brings the longer unbeaten résumé, but Grad owns the harder-hitting recent form, with finishing pace and knockout power the concrete threat he carries into striking exchanges. That puts the burden on Riley to weather early power and prove his run holds up against a heavier hitter. If Grad lands clean early, his stoppage threat is the fight's central danger; if Riley absorbs it and settles in, the read opens up considerably.

What to Watch

Early striking: whether Grad's power lands clean in the opening rounds or Riley closes distance safely.
Riley's response: how the unbeaten prospect reacts the first time he's tagged by a genuine puncher.
Late rounds: whether the fight reaches deep waters, where Grad's early finishing threat matters less.

Key Uncertainty

Both men are hard to place at this level: Grad has only two UFC fights on record, while Riley debuts in the promotion with no UFC history to measure his unbeaten run against.

Bogdan Grad vs Luke Riley