← UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy
Luke Riley vs Michael Aswell Jr.
UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · 2026-03-21
Luke RileyLow Data
71.1%
Model
66.7%
Market
1.44
Odds
+4.4
Edge (pp)
provisional · 1 UFC fightsprovisional · 1 fights
Style Matchup
STRIKING
P60
Striking Initiative
P91
P35
Volume
P92
P74
Striking Efficiency
P49
P68
Range Sniper
P92
P16
Kickboxing
P39
P56
Clinch Striking
P9
P45
Defensive Striking
P49
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P29
Wrestling
P21
P0
Pressure Wrestling
P0
P1
Top Control
P31
P0
Submission
P0
P1
Anti-Wrestling
P51
P3
Grappling Defense
P68
P35
Scrambler
P33
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P100
Power
P92
P56
Finisher
P38
P39
Damage Resistance
P59
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P3
Fast Starter
P58
P2
Pace
P20
—
Late Fighter
P49
GLOBAL
P12
Versatility
P26
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
RileyJr.
2.55Landed / min8.86
1.27Absorbed / min8.68
61%Accuracy41%
46%Defense55%
2.73KD / 151.80
0.00KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
RileyJr.
0.00TD / 150.00
0.00TD att / 150.00
—TD accuracy—
43%TD defense—
0:41Control / 150:13
0.00Sub att / 150.00
Targets
RileyJr.
Head79%|82%
Body7%|13%
Leg14%|5%
Position
RileyJr.
Distance29%|92%
Clinch7%|1%
Ground64%|7%
Ranking evolution Riley Jr.
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Luke Riley
Luke Riley arrives unbeaten at 12-0, with a 12-fight win streak and a debut win inside the UFC. He fights with disciplined range work and a solid stand-up defense, carries finishing power that ends fights before the judges, and has shown he can take a shot and keep coming.
Michael Aswell Jr.
Michael Aswell Jr. sits at 11-3 overall and 1-1 in the UFC, coming off a rebound win. His game is built on output and forward pressure in the striking, and his recent slate has tested him against a better tier of competition than his opponent has faced.
Matchup Read
Aswell brings the sterner recent competition, but Riley owns the sharper matchup-specific tools. The fight likely turns on the striking exchanges: Aswell wants to press forward and pile up volume, while Riley's range control and stand-up defense are built to keep him at the end of his shots. If Riley manages distance and lands clean, his power and durability let him weather the pressure and hunt a finish.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Aswell can close the gap and crowd Riley, or gets kept at range and countered.
- Durability: how Aswell's forward pressure holds up if Riley starts landing flush.
- Late rounds: whether Riley's finishing threat forces the issue before the scorecards come into play.
Key Uncertainty
With Riley owning a single UFC appearance and Aswell just two, there's a thin sample against top-level opposition for both, which limits how firmly either man's tools can be read at this level.