← UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot
Michael Aswell Jr. vs Lucas Almeida
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10-11
Michael Aswell Jr.Low Data
71.0%
Model
58.0%
Market
1.66
Odds
+13.0
Edge (pp)
provisional · 1 UFC fightsprovisional · 1 fights
Style Matchup
STRIKING
P94
Striking Initiative
P77
P99
Volume
P96
P53
Striking Efficiency
P19
P81
Range Sniper
P73
P57
Kickboxing
P47
P12
Clinch Striking
P8
P58
Defensive Striking
P7
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P29
Wrestling
P7
P0
Pressure Wrestling
P7
P0
Top Control
P13
P0
Submission
P38
P56
Anti-Wrestling
P10
P57
Grappling Defense
P14
P36
Scrambler
P22
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P20
Power
P93
P25
Finisher
P87
P53
Damage Resistance
P26
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P5
Fast Starter
P1
P12
Pace
P34
P71
Late Fighter
P80
GLOBAL
P15
Versatility
P1
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
Jr.Almeida
7.87Landed / min4.51
9.07Absorbed / min4.27
38%Accuracy37%
55%Defense43%
0.00KD / 150.88
0.00KD abs / 150.59
Grappling / Wrestling
Jr.Almeida
0.00TD / 150.00
0.00TD att / 150.29
—TD accuracy0%
—TD defense55%
0:00Control / 150:58
0.00Sub att / 150.00
Targets
Jr.Almeida
Head78%|54%
Body16%|19%
Leg6%|27%
Position
Jr.Almeida
Distance99%|88%
Clinch1%|2%
Ground0%|10%
Ranking evolution Jr. Almeida
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Michael Aswell Jr.
Michael Aswell Jr. brings pressure and output on the feet, walking opponents down and keeping the volume high in exchanges. He's 10-3 across all organizations and has tested himself against a better class of opposition than his opponent, though he dropped his UFC debut.
Lucas Almeida
Lucas Almeida, 15-4 overall and 2-3 in the UFC, manages range well and defends on the feet, using a longer frame to work behind. He carries real finishing ability, dangerous on the ground and capable of ending fights early, and a sturdy chin that lets him absorb damage.
Matchup Read
Aswell has faced the tougher opposition, but Almeida owns the sharper matchup-specific tools. The central question is standing: Aswell's pressure and volume run into Almeida's distance control and durability, and Almeida's chin means the output may not break him. Almeida's reach helps him fight from the outside. If exchanges hit the mat, Almeida's submission threat and finishing ability become the main danger, so Aswell is safer keeping it upright and busy.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Aswell can close the 5cm reach gap and impose his pace, or Almeida keeps him at the end of his punches.
- Ground exchanges: any time it hits the mat, watch Almeida hunt for the finish off his back or from top.
- Durability: whether Aswell's accumulated volume visibly bothers Almeida, or his chin lets him keep walking through it.
Key Uncertainty
With only one UFC fight on Aswell's record, there's limited high-level tape to judge how his pressure and volume hold up against opposition of Almeida's caliber.