← UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi
Vinicius Oliveira vs Andre Fili
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06-20
87.0%
Model
67.9%
Market
1.42
Odds
+19.1
Edge (pp)
limited sample · 5 UFC fightslimited · 5 fights
Style Matchup
established · 25 UFC fightsestablished · 25 fights
STRIKING
P78
Striking Initiative
P38
P85
Volume
P71
P33
Striking Efficiency
P16
P52
Range Sniper
P47
P47
Kickboxing
P33
P9
Clinch Striking
P7
P71
Defensive Striking
P25
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P57
Wrestling
P82
P45
Pressure Wrestling
P78
P50
Top Control
P50
P23
Submission
P27
P19
Anti-Wrestling
P94
P39
Grappling Defense
P74
P26
Scrambler
P72
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P84
Power
P44
P67
Finisher
P8
P74
Damage Resistance
P51
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P50
Fast Starter
P12
P82
Pace
P70
P92
Late Fighter
P48
GLOBAL
P41
Versatility
P28
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
OliveiraFili
4.52Landed / min3.84
2.72Absorbed / min4.37
43%Accuracy38%
57%Defense51%
0.43KD / 150.33
0.00KD abs / 150.33
Grappling / Wrestling
OliveiraFili
1.51TD / 152.31
3.24TD att / 155.00
47%TD accuracy46%
69%TD defense69%
2:49Control / 152:21
0.22Sub att / 150.22
Targets
OliveiraFili
Head54%|72%
Body23%|15%
Leg23%|13%
Position
OliveiraFili
Distance83%|87%
Clinch4%|6%
Ground12%|7%
Ranking evolution Oliveira Fili
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Vinicius Oliveira
Vinicius Oliveira carries real finishing ability, the kind that threatens to end fights before the judges weigh in. His cardio holds up deep, with a gas tank and pace that stay reliable late. His defensive work has been trending upward recently. He's 4-1 in the UFC, 23-4 overall, with a win over the No. 15-ranked opponent.
Andre Fili
Andre Fili brings the physical frame to this one, roughly 10 cm of reach on Oliveira to work behind. His ground control has been improving of late. The veteran is 13-12 in the UFC and 25-13 overall, but he's 2 of his last 5 and absorbed a stoppage loss in recent outings.
Matchup Read
Oliveira carries the early finishing danger and the steadier tank if this reaches the third, while Fili's length and rising top game matter most once exchanges tighten up. The central question is range: Fili's reach gives him room to work from the outside, but Oliveira's finishing threat makes every clean entry costly. If Fili drags it to the mat and controls, he neutralizes the pace gap; if it stays standing and long, Oliveira's power stays live across three rounds.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Oliveira can close the 10 cm reach gap and land clean, or Fili keeps him on the end of his jab.
- Grappling: whether Fili looks to use his improving top control, and how Oliveira responds off his back.
- Late rounds: whether Oliveira's pace tells in the third as output and finishing threat carry.